The moment of truth arrives for the Rangers … Kreider could arrive soon

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Here’s my column from The Journal News and lohud.com:

By Rick Carpiniello

It’s now or never for the Rangers.

Forget about the ridiculous schedule and the excuse of fatigue, however legit it might be. Forget about the power play struggles (is that even a strong enough word anymore?), forget about waiting for Rick Nash, Derek Stepan and Martin St. Louis to do what they’re supposed to do, forget about the number of shots on goal.

Just win. Get it done. Or prepare for an unpleasant handshake.

The Rangers must win Game 4 at the Garden on Wednesday night to even the series at 2-2, because — though it’s been done, and done plenty over the last 25 years — they are not coming back from 3-1 down against this Pittsburgh team.

They just aren’t.

On the other hand, even it up and it’s anybody’s series.

The Rangers have so many holes in their lineup, in their game, and the Penguins have patched and fixed so many holes in theirs. Sidney Crosby has played the last two games like the best player in the world, which he is. Marc-Andre Fleury has played the last two games like Henrik Lundqvist.

And still … coach Alain Vigneault is absolutely correct that despite the witness-protection status of his top scorers, despite the embarrassing 0-for-34 power play, despite the better goalie not being better, despite multiple blunders (like the three breakaways immediately following failed power plays), the Rangers have not been outplayed, or at least not by much, in seven of the nine regulation periods. And they won the brief overtime in Game 1.

That said, they also have not outplayed the Penguins by any significant margin since the first period of the first game.

The Rangers took the day off Tuesday, after playing five in seven days, six in nine. Vigneault thought the three guys inserted into the lineup (Jesper Fast, J.T. Miller, Raphael Diaz) brought energy and fresh legs. But he didn’t commit to keeping any of them in the lineup for Game 4.

He even said that Chris Kreider, whose speed, shot and size are sorely missed, was to see a doctor “shortly … and I think we’re going to know in a short time frame — I don’t know if short is a day or a couple” about his return.

“He would bring a lot to our lineup, there’s no doubt there,” Vigneault added.

In Game 3, a 2-0 loss, the Rangers hit three pipes behind Fleury, who has not allowed a regulation goal in eight periods.

“It was a much better effort in terms of making life harder for him,” Brian Boyle said. “He answered though.”

Vigneault said Penguins owner Mario Lemieux told his longtime teammate and friend, Rangers assistant Ulf Samuelsson, “anything Fleury can catch he will catch.”

“So,” Vigneault said, “maybe if we stay away from that mitt a little bit our chances might become a little bit better.”

Fatigue’s not a factor any longer. It can’t be, or they might as well start putting the equipment in the Hefty bags now.

It’s a one-game season for the Rangers, who throughout the last three playoff seasons have won a lot of games they have needed to win. They also lost a few of those — to the Devils in ’12, to Boston in ’13 — that put their season on the brink of elimination.

Then they got out the Hefty bags. That’s what they face in Game 4. Now or never.

Twitter: @RangersReport

 

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456 Comments

  1. Time to bring the big boy pants. I expect nothing less. Move those shots over a millimeter and were golden. Of course ensure that millimeter is towards the center of the net.

    Let’s go Rangers. No handshakes on Friday.

  2. Rick Nash = Reggie Jackson arent they both Mr. October? Well..all that can change with the balance of series and maybe other series to play….a chance to become Dave Winfield..and proudly become Mr.May!

  3. Sioux-per-man on

    How do they not put him in? After two ZERO goal games?

    Pit him with Nash and send him to the net.

    St Louis has his best game as a Ranger tonight!

    Rangers win tonight!

  4. Cross Check Charlie on

    I can’t believe Carp called this a must win game (even though it is).

  5. Nothing like telling the opposing goalie that you’re going to eschew the glove side. Or is this, too, a ploy?

  6. Good morning, boneheads!

    Nice column, Carp!

    Big game tonight. That’s when the big boys have to show up. No excuses.

  7. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I think the way the Rangers play tonight will inform a lot of the opinions for the off season…..

  8. A few of our guys are wearing jerseys that say “Witness Protection Program” on the front, and “You Don’t Know Me” printed on the back.

  9. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Look: We’ve played well enough to win any of these games. We have had zero puck luck and a horrendous PP. Maybe we can fix one of those and take this thing.

  10. Stranger Nation on

    Get Nash off PP – adding absolutely nothing. Current PP design is focused on screening and tips in front. Only problem is we don’t have a great shot at point and don’t really have a great crease presence.
    With our speed and puck handling need to focus more on cycling and movement, getting the D to chase the puck and move out of position for better looks.
    Can’t have Bucky and/or Nash standing like statues

  11. NHLPA re NYR’s 5 games in 7 nights: “We are discussing with the NHL what can be done to avoid this happening again in future.”

    Retweeted by Zipay.

    Media fluff, or did some guys actually demand something be done about it?

  12. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Pimp: are these your legions or just you under different names?

  13. iDoodie Machetto on

    Boomer just said he expects [THE] Kreider and Carcillo tonight. He is usually in the know about the Rangers.

    But he didn’t call him THE Kreider.

  14. Bad puck luck. Thought we outplayed them in game 3. Error inserting wide-eyed kids into a game like this, I think. They are the future, but not the immediate present. Diaz not afraid to pound it from the point.

  15. Carps 2-2 prediction vs carps penguins in five prediction vs carp really doesn’t like the penguins much at all.

    Hmmmm.

    Big boy pants. LGR

  16. iDoodie Machetto on

    Forward lines for tonight:

    THE Kreider-THE Kreider-THE Kreider
    THE Kreider-THE Kreider-THE Kreider
    THE Kreider-THE Kreider-THE Kreider
    THE Kreider-THE Kreider-THE Kreider

  17. Kreider with speed, shot, net presence, a bit of developing nasty. Needs: Better play away from the puck, which should develop. Does he have his game legs/wind right now? We shall see what we shall see.

  18. Miami Pimp on

    Lol, I have only ever posted as “Miami Pimp”, “Miami Playoff Pimp”, and “Cookie Monster”

  19. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    @tpanotchCSN Flyers will announce Ron Hextall moving up to GM and Paul Holmgren to president, am told

  20. Czechthemout!!! on

    Boomer’s info has been solid!

    Kreider on the first line, Carcillo to the fourth. When Carcillo has been on that line is when its played its best hockey. DD is an idiot who should be the 13-14 forward.

  21. It’s the same story every year. Bring in a new coach, new players, new system, etc etc. The power play sucks and the team can’t score. Meanwhile, the castaways- Gaborik, Dubinsky, Anisimov, etc all leave town and seem to elevate their game. It’s kind of amazing.

  22. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I assume Kreider immediately becomes an integral part of the PP, no?

  23. AV loves Dorsett in the role he plays. He’s stated that numerous times.

  24. THE Kreider could have a big presence on THE power play. Just as long as he literally doesn’t re-break THE hand that feeds him. Plus, AV can use THE Kreider during THE overtime because THE teams play five on five. THE fact that THE Kreider could be back makes THE Yergs excited. THE.

  25. The K not afraid to park himself in front of the net and screen, plus has hands. He and PullOut should produce in that role on PP.

  26. The way the first line has played, I think THE goes right back to the left side with either Nash or MSL and plays on the PP unit.

  27. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    If Kreider plays with Nash is that a waste of Kreider?

  28. He might not have his hands any time soon though. Guy is coming off a broken hand and being rushed back.

  29. Boomer knows what Richards knows. I’m like 90% certain that’s the connection.

  30. I’m yet to see a definitive report that he is paying. And agree with Oleo, let’s not expect too much of him. If he is back, that is.

  31. Manny, that’s the worst news. Hextall may suck, but he may not suck. We know Holmgren sucks.

  32. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Yup. Hextall is now a wild card and, presumably, he has an interest in the Phlyers having a decent goaltender.

  33. Don’t forget, though, that *Hextall* is a crazy person. I can see him being like the Mark Cuban of the NHL. I would love to see Hextall and Roy duke it out at center ice next season, with Hasek waiting nearby.

  34. When someone (James Neal) intentionally slashes Kreider’s hand and Pittsburgh fans celebrate it as avenging the Graves slash, I will hit rock bottom. It will not be pretty.

  35. Patients are running the asylum early today eh? I like it.

    We’re down two games to one to Pittsburgh in the semi finals. How bout picking your team up and making it a best out of 3 series, Mr Rick Nash?

  36. 4everanger on

    Are you guys for real, expecting rusty and barely healthy Kreider be THE Savior? You kidding yourself preposterously.

  37. Just wondering, if Kreider comes back tonight after missing several weeks of hockey and doesn’t make an impact I wonder how many people will be criticizing him calling him useless and saying we should trade him..

  38. I don’t think anybody said he’d be the savior, but I think he can certainly help this team… perhaps a la Willis Reed.

  39. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    And you’re 100% right about Hextall being an insane person, Yergs.

  40. Jeff in South Dakota on

    Rangers need to man up and have an attitude of: Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’intrate, or Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

  41. Thank you, 4ever. I understand he can provide a spark and that he’s had some huge playoff games but the reality is this is a 23 year old who hasn’t played since late March and who probably isn’t 100% that’s stepping in out of desperation if he does step in..not trying to be negative but if he doesn’t have a point or he’s a -3 over 2-3
    Games is it really gonna be a shock? Or his fault?

  42. At the Flyers game for Game 6, they showed a montage of Hextall “highlights” which, and I’m not kidding, was like 90% him beating the (Carcillo) out of people, 9% scoring goals, and 1% actually making a save or two. Those silly Flyers fans ate that (Carcillo) up.

  43. 4everanger on

    Hope dies last. Expect funeral rehearsal, tonight between 9PM – 10PM E.T. in the Newly Renovated, World Famous…Parlor.

  44. Jeff in South Dakota on

    Ron Hextall is a fine choice for GM. The fact that he is balls-on crazy only drives up the entertainment value.

  45. I said savior Manny. Because if he struggles I’m going to boo him like an infant in a Flyers onesey!

  46. _Just wondering, if Kreider comes back tonight after missing several weeks of hockey and doesn’t make an impact I wonder how many people will be criticizing him calling him useless and saying we should trade him._

    First “Stepan + Kreider for Byfuglien and a 2nd” idea comes midway through the 2nd period.

  47. If Kreider doesn’t take over this game and the next two, send him packing! (s)

  48. Let’s also not forget Krieder was playing pretty poorly at the time of his injury and has a proclivity for taking stupid penalties.

    Kreider was not good at all in the month prior to getting hurt.

  49. Are we still using “Carcillo” as a replacement for the “S” word around here? Or is it “Cooke”? Or “Chris Neil”? Or “Malkin”?

  50. I wish Game 5 was in NY so I could go without paying much money if things go terrible tonight.

  51. Alain Amour on

    Let’s Go Rangers. Let’s Go Hank. They need you to shut out the ‘guins. You are due $8.5m over the next seven seasons for a reason.

  52. Holmgren and Hextall? Carp rides the elevator with these people. You want to talk brave?

  53. Hextall as GM..because his old back up Snow is doing such a wonderful job LOL. I would love it. like Gods Devine plan to keep Philly suffering in hockey mediocrity. He will last 10 years in that office and then they can fire him and make Joel Otto the GM. Or maybe JR!

  54. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    Ok…ok..you guys guessed it.

    Yes, the NHLPA had a player complaint. Richards (Richie Rich;Rocket) was upset with the lack of a day off between games. Gotta get his hair done, nails fixed, hair coiffed, you know………..

  55. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    I’m quite sure Hextall is a better judge than Holmgren or Clarke about what constitutes a real goalie.

    (SS)

  56. “… and if you do shut them out then lose 1-0 in overtime you suck and should go to hell” – Kenneth

  57. Rangers dress Dorsett, Carcillo, The Undertaker, Haley. Bylsma says: “What the …is this all about?”

  58. _Lol. Byfuglien. What a disaster that would be_

    No joke, I had 5 or 6 different names in there before I thought of him and realized he’s the perfect fit for “oh no, we traded for _______” … wait … wait … wait … “OH MY GOD WE GAVE UP WHAT FOR _______?!?!?!?” player these days.

  59. Robby Bonfire on

    Why am I the only Ranger fan on the planet lobbying for Hags to be given a shot on a barren Power Play that is rapidly taking this team into impending summer vacation? HTF can anyone here mention the Rangers enfeebled PP without making a connection that, at 0-34 and counting, least one positive change/experiment would be worth taking a look at?

    Why are people reluctant to experiment when things are going badly – when they have NOTHING to lose! I am really disappointed that not one person here, and not one media hack has even noticed that Hags NEVER is given PP time.

    You know what was easier than getting Carl Hags a shot on the Rangers PP? How about recommending to then Phillies owner Bill Giles, back in the early 90’s, that baseball give inter-league play a shot. Giles subsequently became part of the three-man committee, along with Red Sox owner John Harrington, and Commissioner Bud Selig, which gave the green light to the implementation of MLB inter-league play.

    I started the ball rolling in this direction by submitting to Mr. Giles, for whom I compiled Phillies statistics for six years, a study entitled “Blueprint For Solvency” in which I detailed the competitive and economic advantages of MLB implementing inter-league play.

    So that, given my success as regards initiating the MLB inter-league play agenda, it is difficult for me to fathom that my suggestion that Hags be given a PP shot, has fallen on deaf ears. Maybe baseball people are more flexible, open, and visionary than hockey people – that could have a lot to do with it. All the time we hear: “If it ain’t broken – don’t fix it.” With this Rangers power play version of The Apocalypse it seems like the saying goes: “Hey, it’s broken, don’t tamper with it.”

    I want to just give up hope for this organization far beyond simply a second round playoff loss to Pittsburgh, starting with – I had a more responsive two-way dialogue with a brick wall, earlier this morning, than I have ever gotten here.

  60. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    The crap people are putting out there that MAF is the ‘star’ of this series is absolute BS. Are you watching? How many quality shots/saves did he have in game 2 or 3? Was he asked to anything but open his glove or just be in the way on 97% of the saves?

    I was at game 3. He ‘saw’ 80% of the shots and was clueless on the others. He got in the way and we shot at him.

    Mario’s quote above is the key. Sure, shoot at his glove and he will catch it!!! SOME NICE COMMENT BY YOUR GM, Boy!!!! Ha Ha!!

    The Pen’s attention to total team defense is the key. Their team shutdown defensive play may be the ‘star’ of the series.

    MAF is the beneficiary. He will be exposed either by us or the next opponent.

  61. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    The love for Byfuglien never dies despite his team making him move to Forward for a while because of his weight and then his being publicly criticized for not putting in effort. Guess he would fit in perfectly.

  62. Yeah, it takes a lot to be a universally accepted low effort guy. There are fat guys and “lazy looking” guys and nonchalant-by-nature guys and most of the time fans are wrong because its tough as hell to play at this level without working hard, but Byfuglien and Penner have been really impressive at eliminating all possible supporters. Only difference is where they are on the career arc.

  63. Alain Amour on

    Shut them out, Hank. With that hefty salary, it is time to elevate your game.

  64. _Why am I the only Ranger fan on the planet lobbying for Hags to be given a shot on a barren Power Play that is rapidly taking this team into impending summer vacation? HTF can anyone here mention the Rangers enfeebled PP without making a connection that, at 0-34 and counting, least one positive change/experiment would be worth taking a look at?_

    _Why are people reluctant to experiment when things are going badly – when they have NOTHING to lose! I am really disappointed that not one person here, and not one media hack has even noticed that Hags NEVER is given PP time._

    _You know what was easier than getting Carl Hags a shot on the Rangers PP? How about recommending to then Phillies owner Bill Giles, back in the early 90’s, that baseball give inter-league play a shot. Giles subsequently became part of the three-man committee, along with Red Sox owner John Harrington, and Commissioner Bud Selig, which gave the green light to the implementation of MLB inter-league play._

    _I started the ball rolling in this direction by submitting to Mr. Giles, for whom I compiled Phillies statistics for six years, a study entitled “Blueprint For Solvency” in which I detailed the competitive and economic advantages of MLB implementing inter-league play._

    _So that, given my success as regards initiating the MLB inter-league play agenda, it is difficult for me to fathom that my suggestion that Hags be given a PP shot, has fallen on deaf ears. Maybe baseball people are more flexible, open, and visionary than hockey people – that could have a lot to do with it. All the time we hear: “If it ain’t broken – don’t fix it.” With this Rangers power play version of The Apocalypse it seems like the saying goes: “Hey, it’s broken, don’t tamper with it.”_

    _I want to just give up hope for this organization far beyond simply a second round playoff loss to Pittsburgh, starting with – I had a more responsive two-way dialogue with a brick wall, earlier this morning, than I have ever gotten here_

    tl; dr

  65. Drag a dead deer into the elevator at MSG and tell everyone you’re elevating your game.

  66. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    Please….no more lazy, loping, lethargic, fat, Nash-types. We need guys that will put in 110% effort when not in their contract renewal year!!!!

    (Holy cow, is that possible???)

  67. _Why am I the only Ranger fan on the planet lobbying for Hags to be given a shot on a barren Power Play that is rapidly taking this team into impending summer vacation?_

    Because he doesn’t have the hands and possibly instincts to work in a set offense? He’s either using his elite speed north-south or a fringe NHL player.

  68. iDoodie Machetto on

    Love that Holmgren’s punishment for his failures as GM was a promotion to President.

    Not surprised in the least that Hextall was made the GM in Philly. I expected it to happen from the moment he was hired to be the assistant GM.

  69. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    Remember what Pouillout looked like earlier this season? I’ll even take a few of him right now. Just some freaking energy.

    PLEASE.

  70. _Shut them out, Hank. With that hefty salary, it is time to elevate your game._

    Shut. Uuuppppppp.

  71. Matty"Rangersin5!!"Boy on

    So, who is our ‘team leader’ that will Patick Kane us, Zach Parise us, you know, ‘will us’ to victory.

    I can tell you who it’s not. That’s a long list.

    And, of course, according to team legend (own mind), Rocket, MacD is too young…..

    Anyone? Who wills us here???

  72. Alain Amour on

    MattyBoy:
    It would have to be Bjorn Hank, but I do not see that happening.

  73. TheRealMikeyNJ on

    A Must Win?

    Are we at 3-0 already or did I not see the first three games?

    C’mon Carp your better than that.

    Yeah a game we have to and should win, but a must win is when your facing elimination correct?

    And no chance of coming back if we go down 3-1?
    didn’t LA Just come back from 3-0? those were MUST Win games.

    Let’s see what happens before you start planning the parade for Crapsburgh shall we?

    And Again how has Crosby been so dynamic this series?
    One goal, and one game where he had some chances, but dynamic, best player in the world? PLEEEEAASSSSEEE

    LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!

  74. Re: Boomer’s references this morning to a conversation he had with a certain Ranger to “keep shooting” . . . his conversation was with the Swiss Spaniard

  75. I’d start the pp with the 4th line…seriously.

    Sitting dorsett is a terrible guy, he is one of the best set up guys on the team…don’t you guys read mr d’s stats ever??

    Literally

  76. Mister D’s super-duper never-lose lineup …

    Dorsett in, Fast out, Dorsett to 4th

    Moore in, Klein out, go L-R and risk the D to try and generate some blue line offense

    Kreider in, if Kreider not in, Miller stays on Richards line, Carcillo stays sitting because he’s already hit his best case scenario and Kreider or Miller has actual top 9 talent

  77. Stranger Nation on

    “Keep shooting” – Boomer’s a tool

    Is/are ‘people’ related to/from ‘everyone’? As in which people will be yelling about THE Kreider, blah, blah, blah

    Don’t understand why you wouldn’t put in your biggest fastest skater who hits and has a good shot AND plays on the first line? Afraid he goes -3?? He has been out 5 weeks, not 3 years.
    Some of you should go back to bed…

  78. Anyone see what Bygulien did for chicago during their first cup run or what he has done to the rangers like 3 or 4 times.

    Ive said it before, put Bygulien in the right culture and the guy is a bigger mismatch then Lucic.

  79. God dammit. I guess the secret is out … I’m sharing a computer with Henrik this AM. We’re pretty close, he calls me “the good looking one” when we hang out.

  80. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Which Rangers player would most likely be the subject of Miley Cyrus’ song “Wrecking Ball”?

  81. _Comparing Bygulien and Penner, please. Watch much?_

    Gosh, I wish I’d acknowledged the difference by mentioning “career arc” somewhere in my post.

  82. Never heard the song, but if it’s meant as a compliment Pouliot, if it’s an insult..secretariats contract.

  83. Mister D, based upon their career arcs and stats. you can’t compare the two. . And there was a poster before who I was directing the comment at more so then yourself. I did notice your “career arc’ comment

    who’s comparable manny? penner and dustin bygulien, or lucid and bygulien?

  84. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I was thinking Kreider would be the wrecking ball (compliment) and Richards would be the Wrecking Ball (not compliment)

    Vibin’ kind of, Wick

  85. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I just heard that stupid song at the coffee shop, Coos. And I was like, “are the lyrics, “I came in like a rainbow”? Then I was corrected. And I thought about it

  86. They’re not direct comps because one has played and may again play defense. The comp portion is relying seemingly solely on talent versus conditioning and, occasionally, in game effort. I’m willing to bet my entire 2017 reputation that when Buff reaches Penner’s current age / spot on the arc, Buff will loo a lot like present day Penner.

    (As much as I hate Lucic, he’s not a comp for Byfuglien beyond size. Byfuglien can be mean when he wants, Lucic plays mean every game.)

  87. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Does this mean anything you *stat nerds*?

    @PatrickKearns Rick Nash was a 56% CF player with Chris Kreider, 5v5 this season. He was 52.1 CF% when on the ice without him.

  88. Means Kreider drives possession for the Rangers. Definitionally (not a word), if 100 shots are directed at net while Kreider is on the ice 5 on 5, 56 are by the Rangers, 44 for the opposition.

    (I lean towards Fenwick because it backs blocked shots out of Corsi and I tend to think getting your shot blocked isn’t necessarily a positive event whereas a miss is still on the positive end of the spectrum.)

  89. A stat repost

    Mister D
    Cool new stat (atleast to me, I’ve never seen it) … Setup passes, which is listed as an “estimate of passes that lead directly to a shot attempt”. Per 60 below …

    Mats Zuccarello: 25.9
    Martin St. Louis: 22.7
    Brad Richards: 19.5
    Ryan Callahan: 19.3
    Derek Stepan: 19.2
    Derek Dorsett: 19.1
    Chris Kreider: 16.6
    Derick Brassard: 16.3
    Dominic Moore: 14.1
    Rick Nash: 13.9
    Carl Hagelin: 11.5
    Benoit Pouliot: 11.1
    Michael Del Zotto: 10.5
    Brian Boyle: 9.1
    Raphael Diaz: 8.2
    Taylor Pyatt: 8.2
    Ryan McDonagh: 6.5
    John Moore: 6.3
    Kevin Klein: 6.1
    Marc Staal: 5.0
    Dan Girardi: 4.3
    Anton Stralman: 3.4

    May 6th, 2014 at 4:30 PM

  90. Looking forward to a massive effort tonight from the Rangers (with the exception of Nash) to attempt to tie this series at 2.

    Sadly, I have a horrible feeling that the Rangers will exhaust themselves and possibly even get a lead only to see the Pens score two quick goals off of turnovers and have a miserable ending to the game.

    As for Kreider, if all he does is drive to the net and stand there for screens he’ll already be doing more than Rick Nash will ever do in a playoff game.

  91. (The problem, especially when comparing a player to his own teammates, is that Corsi and Fenwick percentages don’t take into account level of competition. I imagine matching up against a Bergeron line versus a Campbell line is a pretty major gap in expected shots allowed and created the other way. In a few years, this stat will be even better, right now its best as a team stat, mildly telling as an individual stat.)

  92. Doodie Machetto on

    I hate Corsi and Fenwick because they start with the assumption that directing a shot towards goal is always better than not. It’s a stupid assumption and they are stupid metrics because of it.

  93. Dorsett basically puts guys in shooting position/scoring position better than anyone on the team not named secretariat, frodo, or bilbo.

  94. Mr D – please get your doctorate and get it over with so that Manny doesn’t sound so goofy.

  95. _I hate Corsi and Fenwick because they start with the assumption that directing a shot towards goal is always better than not. It’s a stupid assumption and they are stupid metrics because of it._

    But its really not, its counting possesssion shift events, not intermediary events. Passing is often preferable, but passing isn’t inside this equation.

  96. Stranger Nation on

    Given where this team shoots from (far & wide) that stat is, at best, misleading.
    Scoring chances fellas. That’s the name of the game, not total shots.

  97. “I believe that about 50% of goals come from the lower slot.”

    The other 50% of goals come from elsewhere.

  98. Nice column Carp. “Witness protection program” – GOLD!!

    Rangers take it tonight. Nashper the friendly ghost scores, gets us all excited about his “return”, then goes back under the sheets for the rest of the series.

    Let’s do it boys!

    WOOOO!!

  99. Have to go now to Kohl’s to buy some tee shirts from the 80% off rack. I’m trying to put food on the table.

  100. “If we played ’em ten times, they might win nine (or ten). But (hopefully) not this game, not tonight. Tonight, we (might) skate with them. Tonight, we stay with them…and we SHUT THEM DOWN because we can (really can’t)! Tonight, WE are (far from) the greatest hockey team in the world. You were born to be (mediocre) hockey players. Every one of you (except THE and Henrik). And you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done. It’s (probably not) over (for another ten years at least). I’m sick and tired of hearing about what a great hockey team the [Penguins] have. Screw ’em. This is your time! Now go out there and take it! -Alain Vigneault channeling his inner Herb Brooks?

  101. Stranger Nation on

    It would be interesting to see a mapping of where goals are scored from during POs.
    Would guess that few few are scored from where Nash shoots from.

  102. _Given where this team shoots from (far & wide) that stat is, at best, misleading._

    This is kind of wrong two ways. First, if you get 20 shots in close and 30 deep versus 20 in close and 20 deep, the former is still preferable. Everything I’ve read says shot quality is at best blurry by team over the course of the season and that the raw numbers tell almost the entire story. Second …

    *Average shot distance, playoffs to date*
    Ducks: 31.1 ft.
    Blackhawks: 33.1 ft.
    Stars: 33.2 ft.
    Penguins: 34.3 ft.
    Rangers: 34.6 ft.
    Sharks: 34.8 ft.
    Blues: 35.6 ft.
    Flyers: 35.7 ft.
    Blue Jackets: 35.9 ft.
    Lightning: 36.8 ft.
    Kings: 36.9 ft.
    Canadiens: 37 ft.
    Wild: 37.5 ft.
    Avalanche: 39.3 ft.
    Bruins: 39.4 ft.
    Red Wings: 39.9 ft.

  103. And yes, these are Miami’s legions, Manny. Pimp knows that only THE is thoroughbred hockey material on this team.

  104. Also, look at the Bruins 2 goals from last night. They’ll show up as inside 30 feet, but they’re two tips on long range shots. Good things happen … if you let them. The problem isn’t our volume or quality of shots, its that we don’t jam the front for tips and rebounds.

  105. ‘Gentlemen, go out there and DO IT and you will get together with your teammates for the rest of your life and cherish this moment!”

    #19: “I’m not getting together with these rag-tags.”

  106. Doodie Machetto on

    “But its really not, its counting possesssion shift events, not intermediary events. Passing is often preferable, but passing isn’t inside this equation.”

    No, it’s counting one particular event, and then using that event to define possession. And frankly, I don’t agree that the event chosen defines possession.

  107. The numbers are trying then I originally thought. Penner had a tremendous first three years.

    When you look at their full-season stats. (starting with the first full season they played, penner played 19 games in 05-06, his first full season was 06-07. and byfuglien played 25 games in 05-06, 9 games in 06-07 and his first full season was 07-08)

    In 570 games Dustin Penner has 303 points. In 494 games Dustin Byfuglien has 291 points. So Penner has 14 more points and 76 more games played.

    Also take into account Byfuglien has been playing defense for about 190 of those games.

    Again, Im surprised at the gaudiness of Penners numbers his first 3 seasons, and that the numbers are as close as they are. But I dont think they are comparable players.

    Penner strikes me as a fat cat. Played hard and hungry and then he got paid. Byfuglien strikes me as a big dude who doesn’t take care of himself properly, but is naturally an unbelievably gifted hockey who is better then most regardless of that fact. I think they are two totally different players and cases.

  108. _No, it’s counting one particular event, and then using that event to define possession. And frankly, I don’t agree that the event chosen defines possession._

    I’m sure you could actually count attack zone seconds if you wanted, but … if it doesn’t end in a shot, are you really getting a better idea of control?

  109. _Byfuglien strikes me as a big dude who doesn’t take care of himself properly, but is naturally an unbelievably gifted hockey who is better then most regardless of that fact._

    Right, but I think this defines Penner too, just before Penner graduated to the stage where his natural talents couldn’t cover for his lagging work ethic.

  110. I wouldn’t rush THE Kreider… even if he’s back, and i am sure he won’t be 100%, how effective can he be after missing so many games?

  111. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I think the big bonus of Kreider is that he’s a big body and a fast, hard skater

  112. Rob in Beantown on

    Those ref stats seem meaningless if we don’t know the baseline PIMs for/against the road team in the playoffs and the baseline home team winning percentage. Need *context*

  113. For in intensive purposes we agree. I just dont think Penner ever had the skill Byfuglien does. But I’ve also liked Byfuglien for a long time and Ive seen him in person burn the rangers like two to three times with end to end rushes for a goal. I grew up watching Brian Leetch do, anyone I see who can do that has crazy skills, being 6’4 and 240 on top of it. To me thats one of the most unquie packages in the NHL.

    Barkley was softie, some guys it comes so naturally for, that unless they are in the right environment and have the inspiration they rely on their natural abilities. I think Byfuglien can get even better then he’s been. And evidently Penner wasnt getting any better then those 1st 3 years.

  114. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I wish all of Nash’s teammates would refer to him as “loser”

    “Hey. Great shot, Loser.” – St. Louis

  115. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “Hey. Next time I’m open why don’t you pass me the puck instead of skating in circles you LOSER.” – Derek Stepan

  116. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “Jesus Christ YOU LOSER. Can you, for once, put a puck in the net when you’re all alone THREE FEET IN FRONT!?” – Vigneault

  117. “I wouldn’t rush THE Kreider… even if he’s back, and i am sure he won’t be 100%, how effective can he be after missing so many games?”

    And the answer is …

    Equal to or more effective than NASH.

  118. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “Hey, loser. Mind passing me the soap before you rub it all over your loser body?” – Brad Richards (in the shower)

  119. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “I wonder if that loser is ever going to put one in the net?” – Rick Nash’s parents

  120. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “I wish that loser would stop embarrassing me so much. ” Rick Nash’s Girlfriend

  121. Rob in Beantown on

    “Don’t even think about getting into bed with me. I don’t sleep next to LOSERS.” – Rich Nash’s wife

  122. Doodie Machetto on

    “I’m sure you could actually count attack zone seconds if you wanted, but … if it doesn’t end in a shot, are you really getting a better idea of control?”

    Yes. Corsi and Fenwick are viewed as valuable under the theory that possessing the puck > not possessing the puck. So, by definition, having the puck for more time, even if it doesn’t end in a shot attempt, is better than not having the puck as often but having more shot attempts. However, Corsi and Fenwick would say the latter is preferable to the former, to the detriment of their ultimate purpose.

    So if a team with a lead forechecks hard in the offensive zone, killing a couple of minutes off the clock, but don’ generate a shooting opportunity, but then the trailing team heads up ice and manages to get a 40 ft shot away before being dispossessed, Corsi and Fenwick would say that the trailing team has had the better of possession, even though they clearly have not.

    It’s just a flawed assumption that leads to flawed results.

  123. Excepting Callahan, who is overrated and selfish and sucks and I hate him forever, Kreider had our lowest average shot distance over the regular season. 24.1 feet. Hags, MSL and Dorsett others under 25 ft. Pouliot at 25.1.

  124. Mr d
    Exactly, we need guys going to the net. Yet another reason why you do not sit dorsett.

    Do they have those stats for other players and teams?

  125. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    @DaveMaloneyMSG Nino Niederreiter for Cal Cutterbuck…hmmmm. NYI may want that one back. #NHLplayoffs

  126. Doodie Machetto on

    They should have wanted it back from the moment they made the trade. Completely blew it on developing that kid. De Haan is next in line to be ruined. Strome is so good that it will be hard for him to be ruined, but I know the Isles will do their best.

  127. Doodie Machetto on

    I thought that the 4th line was much more effective when Carcillo was on it compared to when Dorsett was on it. And I HATE Carcillo, that piece of carcillo.

  128. Manny-o-war on

    Also hate Carcillo. Definitely into re-signing him or bringing up Haley depending on his back injury situation.

  129. Mikey, I’m just saying, IMO, they are not coming back from 3-1.

    And yes, Crosby has been the best player on either team in the last two games and is the best player in the world.

    I didn’t use the term must-win. But if they lose, they’re out, IMO.

  130. Dubinsky to arty convo. You realize arty we got traded got that loser Nash. Arty ha your right now sather is stuck with that loser.

  131. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    @KatieStrangESPN #NYR #PIT Kreider has been medically cleared, AV said. Doesn’t know yet whether he’ll play

  132. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Crosby *is* the best player on either team. That’s just a fact.

  133. OBVIOUSLY they’re out if they lose this game. These clowns aren’t coming back from down 3-1.

  134. _Crosby is the best player on either team. That’s just a fact._

    And this goes for any possible combination of teams where one roster has Crosby.

  135. Hextall says analytics are going to be a big part of his decision making as GM.

    That can’t fail. (s).

  136. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    HAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAH HAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAH HAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAH

  137. Will say this one more time about the Nash trade. Thank Howson for howzering up the trade deadline talks or it would have been Kreider instead of Anisimov. Or perhaps instead of Erixon and in addition to Anisimov.

  138. HA HA HA ONLY NERD TEAMS LIKE THE BLACKHAWKS LEAN HEAVILY ON THEIR PROPRIETARY ANALYTICS SYSTEMS LOSERS HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!

  139. I want to go back to that thread and find all the people who advocated adding Kreider or Miller to get Nash. Then I’m going to call them dummies.

  140. Doodie Machetto on

    I would have added Miller if it meant keeping Anisimov. Also really would have preferred moving McIlrath instead of Erixon.

  141. Doodie Machetto on

    The only “advanced stat” that I have found useful is PDO, as a substitute for plus/minus.

  142. Doodie Machetto on

    And let’s not forget: the Nash we have now is not the Nash we got. Once he got his concussion, he’s been a totally different player.

  143. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    And let’s not forget that…keeping a rodent…ya know…within the city limits…That ain’t legal.

  144. “I want to go back to that thread and find all the people who advocated adding Kreider or Miller to get Nash. Then I’m going to call them dummies.”

    Most certainly won’t find me.

    And that’s “THE Kreider”, thank you very much.

  145. First goal is critical tonight…I would even go far as to say that if Penguins strike first tonight, the game would be over.

  146. Doodie Machetto on

    Miller has yet to show me anything that makes me think this guy will ever be more than a third liner, which I have consistently thought would be his ceiling from the moment he was drafted.

    I would’ve preferred we trade down and grabbed Grimaldi. I know Sioux is on board with that one.

  147. Lloyd Braun on

    I can’t imagine anyone who wanted to trade Kreider for Nash…and I’m not sure I even wanted to move Miller at that point.

    And I do agree that Nash has been diminished a bit by concussions. That being said, what is Brad Richards’ excuse?

  148. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    If Miller can be a 3rd line Center then I’m very happy with that.

    Grimaldi is an awesome sparkplug but he’s TINY. Reminds me of Cory Conacher. I fear for his NHL potential. And this team is already small enough!

  149. Lloyd Braun on

    Whatever JT Miller is or isn’t, he has no business playing in these games right now. Guy looks beyond lost.

  150. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    @strombone1 Whoopi Goldberg just said on TheView that she has a vibrator at home.So it’s nice 2 know that I will b having nightmares the rest of my life

    That’s Luongo for those of you that don’t know

  151. Kreider hasnt done anything to prove himself yet so lets cool off a little bit. We know he can consistently take a bad penalty. Now lets see him develop a little bit.

    MZA came back from a less severely broken hand and was pretty terrible. I dont think he’s even back 100% now. If Kreider can push back physically that’ll already be good news. Im not expecting much offense wise.

    Keep Diaz in. Scratch J. Moore, Fast, Miller, and Dorsett. If Kreider is actually ready and not must-win “ready” then put him in. Otherwise play Carcillo.

  152. I need analytics to tell me that Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Keith are good players? Or that you need guys like Shaw and Bickell?

  153. Kreider might want to stuff some extra padding in his glove with Orpik probably coming back to join choppers Neal, Kunitz, et al.

  154. Robby Bonfire on

    Mr D. – Thank you for your response and your point is well taken. The reason I am bullish on what Hags ~might~ add to our power play is because of, 1. his skating ability, which translates into ~separation~ something you want on the PP; and 2. His scoring 12 (!) short-handed goals his final year in college. I figure, Mr. D., that if a man can beat the D 4 on 5, he might also shine when it comes to 5 on 4.

    Not saying Hags is all-world, just posing the question that with all else having failed, why not give it a try?

    Have a great day. RB

  155. sorry folks but kreider isn’t going to make a difference, rangers are done on so many levels.

  156. Lloyd Braun on

    I don’t think Kreider coming back means the Rangers win this series, but I’d rather see him out there than Miller.

  157. Also, if the NHL had their priorities in line Marc Staal wouldnt be playing tonight. That was really really cheap.

  158. I can’t imagine that Hagelin hasn’t been given a look on the PP in practice.

    But now two completely different coaches don’t see him as having any skill to handle that part of the game. I personally don’t, either. I think Dom Moore would be a better choice than Hagelin, for example.

  159. THE Kreider is absolutely going to make a difference.

    He is an absolute-force.

  160. Alas, Alain,
    There is no relevant, direct correlation between someone’s salary and performance. It does not guarantee any future action, is awarded, based exclusively on the past achievements and is NOT a carrot in front of donkey. (Hope, you’re not consider our best goalie a jackass, do you?)

  161. Lloyd Braun on

    Carl Hagelin is a fast skater who is a great player if there’s not an opposing player within 20 feet of him.

  162. NHL Player Safety is a joke. We’ve seen hundreds of head shots like Staal’s go unpunished.

    If others were, including Neil on Staal, I’d agree, Staal should be seated tonight.

  163. THE KREIDER – #1 player in the NHL
    Crosby – Best player in the world

    That must make Crosby better than #1

  164. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    If Dom Moore was on the PP at least we would have a shot at winning the faceoff

  165. Manny, that’s my reasoning as well. Pretty sure he’s the most reliable guy on faceoffs that we have. Combine that with his work ethic in general and …. well it cant be much worse than what we have now.

  166. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I don’t think anything could be worse, Lev. I like this plan. I hope they try it.

  167. “I don’t think anything could be worse, Lev. I like this plan. I hope they try it.”

    Remember when I suggest Dom Moore on the power play and you yelled at me and said Boyle would be better and you were really mean and nearly made me cry but I didn’t because I don’t cry a lot?

  168. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I suggested adding Boyle instead of Pouliot because Boyle is a guy that can really help pin the puck low.

    Then last game I said, “why not just throw the 4th line out there?” Because they get actual zone possession.

    I apologize, Latona. You’re a genius

  169. Lloyd Braun on

    if we’re suspending Marc Staal, can we also suspend Brian Gibbons for nearly killing Rafael Diaz on an icing touch-up where the latter player was purportedly untouchable?

  170. Lloyd Braun on

    hybrid icing is meaningless if you’re going to allow a player to send a defenseless player careening into the low boards

  171. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “Hey Coach. Please don’t put me on a line with that LOSER.” – Chris “THE” Kreider

  172. _I need analytics to tell me that Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Keith are good players? Or that you need guys like Shaw and Bickell?_

    Keith was a late 2nd round pick. Sharp they stole from Philadelphia when, presumably, Philadelphia was willing to trade him beyond just Chicago. Shaw was a 5th round pick. Bickell was a 2nd round pick who developed late but they stuck with him. Saad 2nd round. Kruger 5th round. Smith 6th round. They moved Oduya and Hjalmarsson to the shutdown pair versus simply cascasding down best 2, next 2, last 2. We *hated* Roszival and they’ve made him valuable. They developed Crawford.

    Anyone can do what you did and say “hey look, the Blackhawks are good”. That ignores how they became good and *why they’ve stayed good*.

  173. _Why didn’t THE Kreider go to the doctor before to see if he can play?_

    I was afraid if he played before now we’d lose our 1st round pick. That’s all I care about.

  174. The vibes feel good tonight. MAF
    Will be exposed.

    5-2. THE with a goal and assist.

    BELIEVE IN BLUE!!!!!!!

  175. Lloyd Braun on

    I will bet however much money you’d like that there’s not a chance in hell the Rangers score 5 goals tonight

  176. Lloyd Braun on

    we may also need another bet that the Rangers don’t score 5 goals in the rest of the series

  177. Stranger Nation on

    _Mister D – Also, look at the Bruins 2 goals from last night. They’ll show up as inside 30 feet, but they’re two tips on long range shots. Good things happen … if you let them. The problem isn’t our volume or quality of shots, its that we don’t jam the front for tips and rebounds_

    Uhmm, thanks for making my point. those goals were ‘scored’ from 15ft and in. If not tipped more than likely an easy save, correct? Sort of like saying a wrister from the bag angle with no one in front is not a scoring chance (see Nash, Richards)

  178. Lloyd Braun on

    I see plenty of Rangers standing in front of the opposing net; they generally do an excellent job of blocking shots from their teammates.

  179. If not tipped, they’d be 50 foot shots and without that initial 50 foot shot, they can’t be tipped. Takes volume to get results.

  180. Stranger Nation on

    _Anyone can do what you did and say “hey look, the Blackhawks are good”. That ignores how they became good and why they’ve stayed good_

    Take away Toes and they are golfing now. What round was he picked in?
    thought so

  181. If we’re going based strictly on faceoff % for PP time, then Stepan is the last center they should choose.

    And Stu Bickel should be the first.

  182. Lloyd Braun on

    Derek Stepan has been arguably the worst Ranger forward in this postseason

  183. Shoot. If only that “take away best player” worked for pretty much every single team in the league.

  184. Stranger Nation on

    No, once again your letting the data cloud your judgement. With no one in front those are still 50 ft shots and not scoring chances. the scoring is happening close to the goal.

    Objectivity is subjective…

  185. _No, once again your letting the data cloud your judgement. With no one in front those are still 50 ft shots and not scoring chances. the scoring is happening close to the goal._

    Ok, so your issue is lacking or lack of traffic, not the shots. Good.

  186. Lloyd Braun on

    that whole grinding away in front of the net and wacking at the puck is nice in theory, but ultimately it’s a lack of skill with the puck that has accounted for the Ranger’s woes for years. the biggest difference between the Rangers and the Penguins on Monday night is that if you gave two Ranger players the opportunities Crosby and Jokinen had and neither one of them would have resulted in a goal.

  187. If Nash had the chance Crosby had he would have still looked to turn away from the net and do his useless spin-o-rama-to-nowhere

  188. Lloyd Braun on

    and also add in how both the Crosby and Jokinen shots should have been stopped

  189. What if the Rangers got their chance not against winning winner Fleury but against losing overpaid loser Lundqvist?

  190. Kenny Albert ? @KennyAlbert

    Last 3 30+ power play droughts in @NHL playoffs: ’07 Ducks 0-36, ’11 Bruins 0-30, ’12 Kings 0-30. All 3 won Cup! (thanks @EliasSports)

    BOOM.

  191. Lloyd Braun on

    man if only the Rangers were dressing Prust and Fedotenko in this series

    surely they’d be down 2-1 but think of all the great grinding!

  192. You could argue that Crosby’s shot should -of- have been stopped. I mean, best player in the world aside, his angle to the net was cut off by the defender, and the shot beat him five hole.

    Jokinen’s clean breakaway could -of- have been stopped, but it’s 50-50 at best.

  193. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Lloyd is *arguably* one of the most contradictory posters on this blog.

    Lloyd *arguably* only shows up when the Rangers are losing.

  194. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    In *hindsight* the Rangers should *arguably* have not made the Rick Nash Trade.

  195. “We hated Roszival and they’ve made him valuable.”

    Did we hate Roszival or did we hate his contract?

  196. Lloyd Braun on

    Goalie always has the edge on breakaways

    But agree that the Jokinen goal was far and away the better of the two shots

  197. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    In *hindsight*, advanced statistics are *arguably* a very stupid way to run a REAL hockey team.

    On the other hand, advanced statistics are *arguable* a decent way to run a fantasy hockey league.

  198. Both. He got that contract off back to back double digit goal, 38+ point years and never repeated those numbers.

  199. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Richard Nash is *arguably* the biggest loser in Hockey.

  200. _Did we hate Roszival or did we hate his contract?_

    My recollection is that a lot of people straight up hated him. Perhaps I’m misremembering. Carp?

  201. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Roszival is *arguably* a better defenseman than any Rangers defenseman because he won the cup.

    Also, he was in Phoenix in between NYR and CHI so maybe the Coyotes helped him a bit…

  202. *Arguably*, the goalie advantage is higher in the shootout than a real-time breakaway, but probably slightly in the goalie’s favor in that situation. Maybe more like 60-40.

  203. Rob in Beantown on

    There’s literally some survivor bias in that Elias stat though, since to have a 30+ PP scoreless streak you need to at least be good enough to play multiple rounds of the playoffs or have your series go a long time. There have been plenty of teams with terrible power plays who lost in short series in one round and were out. It’s still kind weird that all of those teams won the Cup, though.

  204. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    A bunch of people who post on here without any avatars are *arguably* the same person posting under different names.

  205. Lloyd Braun on

    Rozsival wasn’t that bad at all but people saw him inevitably as an aging, slowing defenseman on a rapid decline. when you added in the $5 million cap hit he back untenable. if Rozsival was a a 5th or 6th-defenseman making $2 million dollars I don’t think anybody would have been that pissy.

  206. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I am *arguably* the strongest human being on the planet

  207. People are pissy about the thought of Boyle making $2MM per year to anchor our 4th line.

  208. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Boyle is *arguably* the best 4th line Center in the game

  209. Lloyd Braun on

    Brian Boyle “anchoring” the 4th line is only a recent development. Up until the last few months under Vigneault we’ve had to endure the absurd notion that Brian Boyle was a top-six forward. And yes, that warrants being pissy.

  210. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    It’s *arguable* that Brian Boyle was *never* treated as anything but a bottom 6 forward.

  211. Lloyd Braun on

    let Boyle score two goals in a game in October and you’ll have dummies like Manny clamoring for him to be centering PP1

  212. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Air Bud II: Golden Receiver is *arguably* the best film ever made.

  213. I’m like the biggest Boyle fanboy in the world and I can’t imagine you’ll ever once see me advocate for him in the top 6. You don’t need a strawman to show some people really, really love him, we readily admit it.

  214. K. Lastima on

    Send Kreider (sorry, THE Kreider) to see the Mets’ medical staff, I’m sure they’ll clear him to play

  215. Doodie Machetto on

    “Anyone can do what you did and say “hey look, the Blackhawks are good”. That ignores how they became good and why they’ve stayed good”

    Toews 3rd overall and Kane 1st overall were a pretty good start. Then sign Marian Hossa to a cap circumventing contract.

    Oh, and many of those draft picks you lauded were made by Dale Tallon, not Stan Bowman. But hey, analytics!

  216. Doodie Machetto on

    As for Rozsival, if he was used and paid the same on the Rangers as he is in Chicago, nobody would have had a problem with him. But when he’s got a 5 M cap hit and Renney tried to force it down our throat that he was a 1st pairing defenseman, he was pretty easy to become a target.

    Then even after Torts arrived, the target and that albatross of a contract were impossible for him to shake. It didn’t help that our defense was so bad that Rozsival still represented a top 3 option through Torts’ first full season. Staal, Girardi, then who, Redden? MDZ as a rookie? Definitely not Gilroy or any of the other guys who got a cup of coffee on defense.

  217. Doodie Machetto on

    But as Chicago’s 6th defenseman, when their top 2 pairings are Keith-Seabrook and Hjarlmalsson-Oduya, it makes Rozsi’s life a lot easier. He can play with Leddy in limited ES minutes while Leddy gets more PP time and Rozsi can help kill penalties.

    Rozsival is getting 18 minutes a night, a total which is no doubt slightly inflated by Seabrook’s 3 game suspension. Every one of our defensemen through Stralman is getting over 19. If Rozsival was in Klein’s spot, nobody would complain.

  218. Rob in Beantown on

    Scouting The Refs @ScoutingTheRefs
    #Rangers PP is now worse than ES.
    PP: 2.37 goals per 60min
    ES: 2.39 goals per 60min. #declinethepenalty #NYR #PIT #Penguins

  219. Doodie Machetto on

    That’s just sad. That means, in a close game, a team playing against the Rangers should take a penalty in order to preserve their lead.

  220. 4everanger on

    I see ghost of immortal Torts behind the Rangers bench.
    Yeah, I still see retired people, fired people and peple with no particular occupation.

  221. Lloyd Braun on

    “If Rozsival was in Klein’s spot, nobody would complain.”

    exactly

  222. Lloyd Braun on

    Pretty much every GM makes those kinds of comments (including Sather back when he first took over this team and was trading away Brian Leetch for Maxim Kondratiev. Those strategies invariably change when a team doesn’t win with their young players.

  223. Doodie Machetto on

    Sauer was the final piece of that trade. We literally have nothing left to show for it.

  224. _Oh, and many of those draft picks you lauded were made by Dale Tallon, not Stan Bowman. But hey, analytics!_

    Bowman has been in the front office since 2001. But hey, fear of analytics because it doesn’t mesh with what you know you know!

  225. Doodie Machetto on

    Prey tell, how many of the picks made since Bowman took over the head gig have panned out? He’s made 3 years worth of picks now as the head guy. All he’s got to show for it are Saad and Shaw. And Saad was his fourth pick of that draft, his second in the second round.

    And I understand the analytics perfectly. I just think their fundamental premises are totally flawed.

  226. Lloyd Braun on

    Kreider has got to play tonight. As does Carcillo. Dorsett, Miller and Fast can all enjoy the view from the press box.

  227. Doodie Machetto on

    Oh, and of course, how could I forget to mention this. The front office you are espousing as the leader in analytics doesn’t actually use Corsi or Fenwick.

  228. Doodie Machetto on

    And while it was nice of you to point to Bowman’s time in the front office starting in 2001, he did so as a “Special assistant to the General Manager.” Giving him credit for anything done by the organization during his four year stint in that role would be akin to giving Messier credit for anything done by the Rangers during his time in our front office.

  229. Carcillo has two goals. He is better than Nash, Richards, Lundquist, Hags.

    He is an all-star. Plain and simple

  230. _Oh, and of course, how could I forget to mention this. The front office you are espousing as the leader in analytics doesn’t actually use Corsi or Fenwick._

    Oh no so I haven’t cracked the proprietary systems I referenced earlier by using a publicly available website??? Back to the drawing board darn it!!!

  231. Doodie Machetto on

    Carp, I’m with Lloyd on Carcillo, ignoring his goals. I thought that the 4th line was better with him on it than Dorsett. I think Dorsett is totally useless.

    And I hate Carcillo, that little carcillo.

  232. Lloyd Braun on

    yes because my suggestion was to play Carcillo and scratch Nash. great point.

  233. Lloyd Braun on

    Dorsett is a poor player. His lone brightspot is goading an opposing player into taking a penalty about once every 15 games. Beyond that he’s a defensive liability and doesn’t offer enough to warrant dressing him down 2-1 in a game you absolutely have to win.

  234. Doodie Machetto on

    Back to the drawing board, indeed.

    Did you ever think that the Blackhawks, with their incredible roster, which had been constructed basically prior to Stan Bowman coming on board, with his only real contributions being signing good contracts to clean up the Tallon mess, Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw, Michal Roszival, Nick Leddy (for Cam Barker), and Johnny Oduya (for Dustin Byfuglien), would be good regardless of whatever metrics the hockey ops people were using? Ever hear of confirmation bias? Like, if they’re looking at something and winning, they say “hey, it must be this thing!” and not the fact that they have Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, Keith Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Corey Crawford?

    Don’t get me wrong, the guys added by Bowman are important. But they wouldn’t mean squat if it wasn’t for the other list of names.

  235. Did you ever think you’re the first one to make this a “Stan Bowman” debate and not a “Blackhawks front office” debate?

  236. Along that line, I would be knocked on my wink-wink if Bowman has developed a single proprietary metric or even knows how to calculate them himself. He acts on the data given to him, not sits around on his laptop coming up with new analytics to use against Glen Sather.

  237. WHICH IS TO SAY … any individual credit to Bowman is likely along the lines of “smart enough to hire the right people and be open minded enough to listen to them”.

  238. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I *arguably* just set a new personal record in bench pressing.

  239. The choosing a beer from PA thing didn’t work out the other night so I’m choosing one from Colorado for tonight. That state makes the best *decisions* so I’m hoping that will rub off on the NYR.

    Great Divide Titan IPA.

  240. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I love that strategy, Doodie. I hope the Penguins employ it.

  241. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Philadelphia *arguably* makes the best beer.

    Is this only fun for me? I thought you guys might join in here…

  242. California, not arguably, produces the best beer.

    I’m just kidding you know…because I’m not *always* right and understand the fact that *people* might feel *differently*

  243. My growler of Peekskill Eastern Standard (sat in fridge for G2, opened for G3) was an abject failure. I imagine the only Pittsburgh beer is that Iron City garbage so that’s out too. This is a *tough decision*.

  244. ThisYearsModel on

    Nino Niederreiter is, agruably, a much better player than Cal Clutterbuck.

  245. I find that a lot of IPA’s made with Simcoe hops tend to suck, MD.

    *Fact*

  246. Doodie Machetto on

    The only guys hired in the Blackhawks front office after Bowman took over were his dad and Pierre Gauthier. Everybody else was just promoted from within, mostly in trickle down relation to Bowman being promoted.

    So, again, not Bowman.

    And don’t think for a second that Joel Quenneville, one of the most old school coaches out there, gives a damn about analytics.

  247. Lloyd Braun on

    has anybody seen Martin St. Louis since game 5 against the Flyers? did he not accompany the team on the train to Philadelphia? maybe he’s still wandering Penn Station like a lost puppy.

  248. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I really like Peekskill. It’s *arguably* one of my favorite breweries. Although the Higher Standard is *arguably* > the Eastern Standard

  249. _So, again, not Bowman._

    No.

    One.

    Credited.

    Bowman.

    Over.

    The.

    Entire.

    Front.

    Office.

  250. Yeah, they were out of Higher so I made due. Had a little surprise trip to Dutchess County last Friday (dad minus one gall bladder) so I swung through on Saturday when heading home. 12 growlers, get the 13th free, BUT on Saturdays b/w noon and 1:00 its a double punch. Wow!

    If they were closer, they’d be my #1 by a margin. They aren’t just an IPA brewery, they do everything really, really well.

  251. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I like the part where The Doctor made his point using the “return” key a lot. That was *arguably* very effective.

  252. Lloyd Braun on

    we’ll see what stats Albert comes up when it’s 0 for their last 38 and the Rangers are down 3-1.

  253. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Even though I agree that *analytics* are *arguably* a terrible idea for running an actual real life Hockey team.

  254. The return key was needed. In hindsight, if you search “Bowman” from the top, the first appearance is Doodie chopping at him while crediting Tallon. Which is crediting the Blackhawks front office. Which is the very point he seemingly wanted to counterpoint.

  255. Rob in Beantown on

    My family arguably goes to Peekskill Brewery every Christmas Eve for dinner when I come in to town. It is awesome.

  256. Stopped by the Newly Transformed Walter’s this afternoon. LOL Same old roof, same old green, falling apart facade and gutters. Three 2 by sixes painted a flat Navy gray. Dogs worked, though.

  257. Analytics-only would be a terrible way to run a hockey team. Analytics supplementing scouting, especially at the pro level, could do some wonderful things, especially in the margins.

  258. Doodie Machetto on

    I brought Bowman into it because he’s the guy that said they use analytics.

    And prior to his promotion to actual duties, they drafted/signed/traded for all of those guys, then won titles.

    Analytics really had nothing to do with it. Unless you think Quenneville tracks Kane’s Corsi rel and qual comp.

    …I don’t.

  259. Casey Stengel: ‘I got your metrics and slide rules swingin’. The boy can’t play here and won’t”

  260. Great post, Doodie, except the part where Bowman claims they just started using analytics under him and eschewed it in the past.

  261. Doodie Machetto on

    Corsi and Fenwick add absolutely nothing. They have a flawed premise that leads to BS results. Qual comp is therefore also completely meritless.

    There are other things, like PDO, which offer some value in terms of a plus/minus statistic. Zone starts, if you consider that to be an advanced statistic, I think can be somewhat instructive, as well.

  262. Lloyd Braun on

    speaking of brilliant scouting, the Rangers took Ivan Baranka in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft

  263. In fact, you might say he _*BRANCHED OUT*_ to incorporate analytics with scouting.

  264. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    This is *arguably* the most intelligent argument we have ever had on here.

  265. I believe it was Ricky who told Kiner, who was looking for a raise after an incredibly productive season “We finished last with you and we can finish last without you.:

  266. Doodie Machetto on

    Mister D, did you mean this part?

    “Bowman — then a 29-year-old with a famous last name and a business background — actually got his foot in the door with the Hawks in 2001 by bringing some statistical analysis to a franchise that hardly had any.”

    Whoops!

  267. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Doodie: you forgot to add *in my opinion* which is *arguably* one of the most important parts of a friendly internet debate.

  268. Doodie Machetto on

    Oh and his “statistical analysis” was “coaches rating players on a 1-5 scale each game, charting the ratings over the course of 10-game spans. But Bowman quickly learned that the ratings were flawed — subject to a coach’s affection for a player, or to his lowered expectations of some players and raised expectations of others. ”

    Yup! That explains their success completely!

  269. The disappearing acts by Nash/Stepan/St. Louis brings to mind the ’90-’91 Rangers squad that got bounced in the first round. Elite, regular-season only players like Bernie Nicholls, John Ogrodnick, Mike Gartner, Brian Mullen, Darren Turcotte, etc just couldn’t do anything when the heat got turned up a bit in the playoffs.

    I remember Neil Smith calling them out and promising change.

    Couple months later we got Mess.

    Just saying, some guys are made for the playoffs. Some guys aren’t.

  270. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Doodie: check out how *arguably* better this paragraph would be

    *In my opinion* _Corsi and Fenwick add absolutely nothing. They have a flawed premise that leads to BS results. Qual comp is therefore also completely meritless._

  271. 1912: “Walk’s as good as a hit.” First non-machine in-depth metric analysis

  272. Doodie Machetto on

    Gartner went 8-8-16 in 13 games that season. Don’t lump him in with the others.

    He should’ve been on the 94 team.

  273. No, Manny, I don’t want a thing changed. Doodie has solved the NHL and now I feel like I’ve also solved the NHL. The fact that he’s pointing to analytics being used and improved for 13 years means nothing to counter his side of the argument at all.

    I have lost.

  274. Doodie Machetto on

    Oh wait, that was 91-92, not 90-91. only 1-1-2 that year. whoops.

  275. On third and 37, throw the ball as high and far downfield as you can and let it be easily intercepted by some goof who is immediately tackled.

  276. Doodie Machetto on

    Or, I’m just pointing out that the most commonly accepted metrics, Corsi and Fenwick, are stupid.

    And to say one team is better than another because it relies on analytics, when it’s clear as day that they just have a team that is miles better because of a couple of great draft picks that had almost certainly nothing to do with analytics, is also stupid.

    Who knows, maybe some team has a magic formula that actually does work. But that formula sure as hell isn’t Corsi or Fenwick.

  277. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    But you forgot to say *IN MY OPINION* which is what makes people respect your side of the argument.

  278. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself

  279. Right, now you’re 4th and 33, kicking to some all-world 150 lb. guy who has moves like an eel and can run the hundred in 9.4

  280. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence

  281. Doodie Machetto on

    Obviously everything anyone says, short of reciting the laws of mathematics, is in their opinion. It’s redundant for me to say something is in my opinion.

  282. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I like to add *in my opinion* so that people know I’m not trying to be a “know it all” because that happens a lot around here.

  283. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    “Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory”

    Sun Tzu, Coos

  284. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    There are five ways of attacking with fire:

    The first is to burn soldiers in their camp;

    the second is to burn stores;

    the third is to burn baggage trains;

    the fourth is to burn arsenals and magazines; and

    the fifth is to hurl dropping fire amongst the enemy.

  285. Since Lloyd mentioned 2003, just in case everyone’s having a good day, here’s a look back at the 2003 draft.

    1st round – Could have drafted Dustin Brown, Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber.

    2nd round to 7th round – Could have drafted Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard, Dan Carcillo (s), Joe Pavelski, Tobi Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Moulson.

    A few other decent players not included

    NYR have no players in the organization from that draft.

  286. ‘hurl dropping fire.’ `Sounds like what we call today ‘vertical shock and awe insertion.’

  287. _Who knows, maybe some team has a magic formula that actually does work. But that formula sure as hell isn’t Corsi or Fenwick._

    You can’t think a paragraph like this is earth shattering, can you. Like you’re this contrarian mind that figure out, “Hey, the secret to winning in the NHL is *not* this very widely talked about counting statistic.”

    “Whaaaaaaat???” says Mister D.

    No doodie, Doodie. Its a single metric to measure one aspect of the game of NHL hockey. Teams can have bad FF% and win, they can have good FF% and lose. However, its proven predictive; teams that outperform their FF% tend to regress and those who underperform tend to get better. And over the entire league and the over course of many seasons, the correlation between the metric and team success kinda speaks for itself.

    (Or rather, it did, right up until you called it stupid and it went away forever.)

  288. Doodie Machetto on

    Draw plays on long down and distance usually pick up at least 10 yards because the defense is downfield committed to stopping the deep pass.

    So you’re 4th and 23, which isn’t that much worse than 4th and 10.

    And punt return TDs are pretty uncommon. Last year there were a total of 13 punt return TDs for the entire season.

  289. “Barry, come over here. Shoot the damned puck! I must of told you 1,000 times, shoot the puck, shoot the puck. You hear me? Shoot the g..damned puck. You got it? Shoot the puck!”

  290. Carp, enjoyed the article. We’ll see what the team is made of tonight.

    Good news, Gravy. Those square avatars are good luck.

    Lev, I hear your foot steps

    but they echo in the distance.

  291. Lloyd Braun on

    Sather and co. ostensibly saw a ton of potential in Ivan Baranka and who could blame them?!

  292. Manny, it’s on my work laptop. I was having problems with IE11, so they backed me down to IE9. Since then, I’ve seen *square avatars* twice before today. The day of game 7 against the Flyers, and the day of game 1 against the Pens.

    Therefore, through advanced statistical analysis, and ignoring small sample size, coincidence, and all other reasonable explanations, I can predict that the Rangers will win tonight.

  293. Doodie, you’re grasping at stirrers. I won’t even bother to point out the Logic 101 fallacies.

  294. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    You forgot to say *in my opinion* again, Doodie.

    And I’m pretty sure Coos was being his usual hilarious self. Probably not worth it.

  295. The goofiest thing about this whole goofy thing is that Fenwick is merely quantifying the general logic of “preventing shots while shooting a lot yourself is better than allowing a lot of shots while not shooting very much”.

  296. Doodie Machetto on

    Mister D, for every “success” of prediction those stats had, there has been an equally large failure.

  297. _Mister D, for every “success” of prediction those stats had, there has been an equally large failure._

    Nooooooope.

  298. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I just opened the site in IE, Gravy.

    *I SEE SQUARE AVATARS*

  299. Doodie Machetto on

    “Fenwick is merely quantifying the general logic of ‘preventing shots while shooting a lot yourself is better than allowing a lot of shots while not shooting very much.'”

    While ignoring shot selection, whether the shots are anywhere near the goal, who is shooting the puck, who is in the goal, who is on defense, who else is on the ice that the defense would worry about, where all these people are in relation to the net, what kind of shot it is, whether it was a good release, whether the stick broke, etc.

  300. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Maybe youse guys can just meet in the middle, like, Advanced Statistics, while potentially not being independently conclusive, are certainly something that could, in addition to actual viewpoints and prediction ability, can really help a team round out it’s philosophy.

    I think both are important, *in my opinion*

  301. I read something recently about Internet Explorer and it wasn’t good. Problems and hacking.

  302. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    I don’t think, *in my opinion* that there is an NHL organization that refuses to look at advanced stats just like I think, *in my opnion* that there is no NHL organization that runs solely on stats.

  303. Doodie Machetto on

    How many shots to the far post that go wide turn into an odd man rush the other way? Good thing we had a shot attempt for! As we dig the puck out of the back of the net, we should take solace in the fact that our FF% on that play was still 50%.

  304. Used to rent summers in Fenwick, part of Old Saybrook. Neat little place, big victorians on the water, 9 hole golf on premises.

  305. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    *In my opinion* Internet Explorer is *arguably* the worst browser on the market.

  306. _While ignoring shot selection, whether the shots are anywhere near the goal, who is shooting the puck, who is in the goal, who is on defense, who else is on the ice that the defense would worry about, where all these people are in relation to the net, what kind of shot it is, whether it was a good release, whether the stick broke, etc._

    Again, dude, we’re at the point where I can’t believe you’re saying these things believing its a revelation. Like tick, tick, tick “I believe a 70 foot wrister equals a breakaway until some smart guy on a blog says otherwise”. Any incorporation of quality of shot hasn’t moved the numbers. And, like I said before, the correlation b/w FF% close and team success (points) has proven strong.

    2013-14: 0.59
    2012-13: 0.48

    And on and on. If you were right above when you just guessed “for every right, there’s been an equal wrong”, you’d see 0.00. You don’t. But you’re still super convinced and that’s great.

  307. Fenwick?????

    And I’m having trouble putting food on the table…..

    Sheesh.

  308. Manny-O-War. King of Metal on

    Guys. There is *arguably* a much *FRESHER POST* on this blog. *In my opinion* of course.

  309. _How many shots to the far post that go wide turn into an odd man rush the other way? Good thing we had a shot attempt for! As we dig the puck out of the back of the net, we should take solace in the fact that our FF% on that play was still 50%._

    The triple play of “guess what I thought about that those who look at Fenwick never did!!!” Congrats.

  310. Doodie Machetto on

    Vancouver can certainly rest easy knowing they were 8th in FF%.

    The Devils made it really far this year at 5th.

    The 10th ranked Lightning CRUSHED the 22nd ranked Canadiens!

    And that 16th ranked Penguins team is just OK. They were lucky to squeak by the 12th ranked CBJs. But they certainly have no chance against the 6th ranked NY Rangers!

    Oh no, let’s ignore all of that and just focus on the Maple Leafs! You got that one right! Sure, anyone who actually watched the Leafs play could have told you they were abjectly terrible and just riding an incredibly hot goaltender. And sure, anyone who didn’t watch the Leafs could have just looked at the incredibly not advanced statistic of plain old shots on goal and told you the same thing. But yes, FF% is the winner!

  311. 2004 draft

    1st round (two picks) – Could have drafted two of Mike Green, Drew Stafford, Alexander Radulov, Travis Zajac, Dave Bolland

    2nd round (faw picks) – On top of drafting Dubinky, they could have drafted three of Bryan Bickell, Carl Soderberg, David Krejci, & Alex Goligoski.

    3rd round (two picks) – Could have drafted two of Clayton Stoner, Alexei Emelin, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen

    4th round – Callahan! Success! Weeeeee! 10 years later, he’s gone.

    5th-9th round – Most notable players are Pekka Rinne, Yutaka Fukufuji, Troy Brouwer

  312. ORR your draft logic doesn’t really make any sense. Outside of the 1st round ‘locks’ it’s totally a crap shoot. I think it’s fair to point to bad 1st round picks but after that the logic doesn’t hold.

    So use 2003 for an example – Matt Moulson in the 9th and final round – that means 29 GMs didn’t draft Matt Moulson and drafted other players before him. Plenty of those other players never played a single NHL game.

    Does that mean the other 29 GMs were stupid or that Pittsburgh’s was a genius? Each team uses the best information they have and they all had the same outlook on most players, ie they drafted them roughly based on their perceived future value.

    For whatever reason, some guys in later rounds become stars. It happens but it’s rare and I’m pretty sure a lot of it is luck.

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