Status quo

95

Hey, just wanted to check in quick to say that I have nothing new to report. I wouldn’t expect much tomorrow either because it’s a Sunday during the offseason, but I could be wrong.

Looks like the fans in Montreal have talked about the possibility of Shanahan signing there but nothing substantial has happened. (These days, rumors on message boards get a lot of play; I bet that’s true here.)

Just remember: agents need more than one team in a bidding to create leverage. Shanahan has clearly stated his desire to return to the Rangers, and that likely cost his side to lose leverage. It wouldn’t be unusual for his camp to talk with another team or two…although I don’t have any information either way.

I’ll let you know if anything happens the rest of the night.

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95 Comments

  1. ORR Kicks Yin Yang on

    Hopefully something happens sunday……its getting dull around here….i need confirmation

  2. Glen’s got no time to negotiate – he’s playing golf. Any news or rumors yet on who’s replacing Maloney as asst. GM?

  3. I am praying daily that the Rangers DO NOT sign Souray. I think he is vastly overated and I also think that Marc Staal is going to be much better offensively than anyone thinks. With all the Salary Cap problems, I think the chances of this signing are slim, but it worries me anyway.

    I think one of the GREAT outcomes of the Salary cap is that it will FORCE the rangers to give their LOW COST prospects a shot. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Matt Cullen and think he could be valuable to the team, but as Larry Brooks says in his piece today, due to the cap difficulties, Cullen might be moved if they are blown away by either Artisimov or Dubinsky.

  4. imagination on

    SAM what you say about Shanahan and his agent might be true, but I tend to doubt they are seeking other offers. Maybe some teams are approaching them. From what Shanahan has said, he’s willing to wait for the NYR to get a deal done. He sounds pretty honorable & sincere to work it out with Sather, if he wants him. I assume Sather does , but he needs to get his other players signed to figure out what he can offer Shanahan. Hopefully Sather has said that to him. Shanahan seems to be the type of man the NYR need in their organization long term if he’s interested after his playing days.

  5. Robby Bonfire on

    Long ago I accepted that the REALITY that today’s athletes are MERCENARIES first, and loyal to their present team and fans – DEAD LAST. Anyone thinking Shanahan – coming up on the end of his career – is any different and is not looking for that last big score, might be in for a rude shock. Frankly, I hope he walks. He is OLD, OVERPAID, INJURY PRONE, and NOT a clutch goal scorer, off his 2007 numbers.

    And I can’t stand the latest feminist “P.C.” garbage to invade yet another male domain, the “Mentoring in the clubhouse” baloney. Syrupy “leadership” talk is just more jockeying for negotiating value and position. It’s all part of the big hustle, so we can stop being taken in by it now.

  6. I also don’t want Souray and I have to agree with Robby Bonfire about shanahan. Shanahan is to old and looked really slow last year. Let’s face it the guy is 38, haven’t ranger fans learned there lesson with these type of players from the past. This is the new nhl and guys like Shanahan just don’t fit. If you think shanahan is such a team leader than hire him as a bench coach.

  7. 1- i don’t understand all the expressions of urgency about tying up Lundquist to a major long term commitment. While he shows signs of being a franchise player, this is a business and he has been in the league just 2 years. 1 year arbitration for Lundquist at 2.5-3m is the appropriate result- if he proves himself again this year there will then be more evidence to justify the commitment he is seeking. If the team can’t sign him next year then there is Montoya and more available cap space- at some point you have to believe in your system.

    2- Anyone get the feeling Sather is trying to passively give Shanahan the message that he won’t be re-signed? Make it look like Shanny’s decision to leave. I actually would be very comfortable with this. He seemed to really slow down and now only has his scoring touch. Time for Callahan, Prucha, Dawes to get their shot at 2nd line scorer. As for leadership it would seem Drury is more than capable of filling the void and aactually may be a better complement to Jagr than Shanny was. All this being said, it would also be ok to sign Shanny for one last season at 2m with no more than 1m in incentives to potentially count against next year cap.

    3. Talked to a couple of friends, educated hockey fans, that live in Montreal. Told them of the negativism on Ranger boards about Souray and they were shocked. Said not only does he have great offensive ability and intimidates other team’s forwards, but his defensive game is respectable and his plus-minus is irrelevant. Montreal just not a great even strength team and because of his ice time his stats showed it. Their fans are very upset to lose him- take that all for what it’s worth. But it seems if the goal is to go for the cup during Jagr’s last 1- years you may as well go for it. The issue would be the ability to sign him at less than 6m per. Seems only way it’s realistic is to shed Shanahan, Mara and Cullen.

  8. Robby Bonfire on

    Interesting. I, too, was thinking jettison Shanahan, sign Souray. Although I am against signing Souray if the cap space becomes available, at least he is 31, not 38, and jacks up the power play, big time. Wish he could just be a PP specialist, that would be the ideal way to use him, but rarely, now, do teams dress just five D’s. Just don’t want Souray, if he comes here – which is still a longshot – to block Staal’s NHL debut date. I am ready for Staal before any Shanahan or Souray options.

  9. This is what I’d like to see starting this season:

    Hossa-Gomez-Jagr
    Straka-Drury-Prucha
    Avery-Betts-Callahan
    Dawes/Hollweg-Dubinsky/Anisimov-Orr

    Malik-Rosival
    Souray-Stall
    Tytin-Girardi

  10. I totally 100% disagree with you guys on Shanahan. The guy scored 29 and missed 15 games. His numbers over 82 games translates to 35 goals and 40 assists. Exactly how is that a bad year? And he is not injury prone. The guy got seriously hurt in an accidental/freak play. And his leadership skills are top notch. And to say he’s not clutch is just ridiculous.

    If he signs somewhere else, I will be VERY upset. Huge loss, in my opinion. Who would replace his goals?

  11. So you guys want to get rid of Shanahan, and sign the -28, no defense Souray? Am I the only one who thinks this is nuts?

  12. goalbyPrucha on

    Sam or Josh, I’m really worried this will be a situation like Messier leaving back in ’97 when Neil Smith left him hanging. Has anyone spoken to Shanny recently to see if he’s losing patience and is there a deadline for UFAs to be signed?

  13. Mark, maybe I’m nuts but:

    1. Souray and Shanahan are even in leadership, and Souray can and does still kick some ass.
    2. Souray, a defenseman, and Shanahan are even in goals.
    3. If you want to say Souray’s -28 is a direct reflection of his defensive ability what’s your position on Malik?

  14. ORR Kicks Yin Yang on

    ROBBY

    Your a complete moron if you think Shanny is another Forsberg….He played about 2 full seasons before coming to NY…he’s never had a concussion in his career…his injury was a crazy thing…there was no avoiding it…

    This blog has a bunch of brainless idiots on here….The old guys areour best players…until they walk then we’ll find out who picks up the slack from there departure…

  15. Again,SHELDON SOURAY IS NOT THE TYPE OF D-MAN THEY NEED! They need someone that’s responsible DEFENSIVELY. The PP will be fine,as is. Geez…

  16. Was just doing some math and if Lundquist gets 3m in arbitration, we don’t re-sign Shanny and trade Mara, then may not have to trade Cullen in order to sign Souray at 5.5m. Then you could have this:

    Hossa-Gomez-Jagr
    Straka-Drury-Prucha
    Avery-Cullen-Callahan
    Hollweg-Betts-Orr
    (Dawes/Dubinsky/Anisimov)

    Malik-Rosival
    Souray-Staal
    Tyutin-Girardi

  17. they dont need a big intimidating defenseman who can score from the point? hmmm

  18. Robby Bonfire on

    I have a TERRIFIC idea – let’s see what kind of season Shanahan has, wherever he plays. My foreboding is that this is the year he collides with the career brick wall.

    As for his 29 goals “which project to 35 without down time,” first of all, old guys are brittle and banged up, and are going to miss significant time, at some juncture of the season.

    Second, I will again be keeping track of the clutch goal statistic, for which I devised a points award system, and will share when the time comes. Shanahan was AWFUL in this category during last season. I mean, scoring 15 important goals beats 29 goals scored, most of which come when the score is 4-1, or 5-2, etc. Goal scoring totals are not nearly as important as WHEN the goals are scored. Shanahan consistently banged the net last year when the games were already decided. Not good. My boy, Hossa, on the other hand, consistenly stepped-up, as did Prucha, in crunch time. I am talking about even-strength goals here, to be precise. I don’t keep track of PP goals in this respect.

    It really is important to separate meaningful, game-impact goals from garbage time “window dressing” goals. I do that. I even throw empty net goals out of my clutch scoring points award system, as well as out of the plus – minus mix, which, incredibly, the NHL includes in its “official” plus-minus stats.

    Every season brings big surprises and changes from the previous season. I think we are all looking forward to this coming season with a sense of expectancy and anticipation.

  19. Dr. Ogrodnick on

    Shanny reminds me of Messier in his later years. Good for the first 40 games, then he slows down considerably when the games get harder and the tank gets emptier. Plus if he goes elsewhere his leadership is easily replaced by Drury. I would still prefer to have him back, as long as we make sure to role 4 lines and limit his ice time (no more PKs), but I wouldn’t be that broken up if he goes elsewhere and one of our young wingers is given a shot.

  20. I don’t understand how anyone could not want Shanny back. He’s only going to take $2 – #3 million to sign…you really think that’s money is going to have an impact on the type of contract we can offer Hank?

    The Rangers will need to trade someone if they want to sign Lundqvist to a long-term deal. I think the signing of Strudwick so early in the offseason was an insurance policy shows that Slats is indeed looking to deal one of his more expensive defenseman.

    I definitely wouldn’t deal Paul Mara, though. I say they find a team who will eat all of Malik’s salary, and anything they can get back is really secondary. Mara has a lot of potential, IMO.

  21. You guys are nuts saying that Souray’s leadership is equal to Shanny’s. What planet am I on? To say Shannahan slowed down and lost his scoring touch last year is far fetched.

    The guy was knocked out with a concussion (the only one of his career, and only extended injury of his career). He was on fire prior to the concussion that he came back early from–not for personal reasons, but to bring some life to the team for the playoff push.

    With a few months off ice and training he will be ready for one more year. His leadership is incomparable, locker room and on ice. And whoever said leadership in the locker room is over rated is nuts. Character teams with real leaders win.

    Souray is a great talent, but he and his long term high money salary is not the answer. Getting rid of Cullen is silly also, the Rangers need him in the middle of the ice more than they need Souray on the blue line.

  22. Robby Bonfire on

    The GAME is the arena, PRODUCTION in the game is the arena, not backslapping, fist-pumping “heart to heart” talks with the young kids the clubhouse.

    I see teams in all sports hanging on to old guys too long, for their “mentoring” presence and capability. That is a joke on them. Shanahan is no better than even-money to even make it through the upcoming season. And what he did in the past is gone, just like the past is gone. He has never been a brittle, slow, overpaid, 38-39 year old “mentor” before.

    Bring on the kids! The future is NOW, not when Shanahan decides to retire, or his agent tells him to jump ship for a few bucks more.

  23. Montreal fans say Souray is a strong leader who gets it done on and off the ice- they are upset about losing him. But I guess when it comes to hockey Montreal fans are pretty clueless- I’m sure the people on this board know better about a player they’ve seen a couple of times a year and has a high minus on a bad even strength team. The same people that say plus minus doesn’t matter when it comes to Malik. This is a purely hypothetcial conversation anyway, Sather doesn’t have the brains or balls to get the Souray for Mara upgrade done.

  24. ORR Kicks Yin Yang on

    Shanny is a true leader…Its funny how alot of NYR fans turn there back on Shanny now that we sign Gomer and Drury…

    ROBBY

    Enough already…Like i said so many times before…There’s a team that you’d love..Its called the Hartford Wolfpack…Why dont you watch them until Shanny and Jags retires..

    As for Souray…I only want Souray if we get rid of Malik…Either way Malik needs to be dealt

  25. Dr. Ogrodnick on

    MJA-NYR- Shanny was in a pretty big slump before the concussion, and was a shell of himself when he came back.

  26. I love Shanny. He scores goals, he’s a playmaker, he’s great to have in the locker room, and on top of it all, he’s just an all around great guy. Just a reminder to those that forgot, Shanny was the only Ranger in the most recent all star game. I want Shanny on the team.

    And not for nothing, if we do get Souray, I bet $10 that you all will be compliaining about him just as much as Malik. Souray is widely known to not be very responsible with the puck in his own zone. And it just so happens that they are around the same stature. But what am I talking about, he can at the very least shoot the puck.

  27. Orr-

    I hear you on preferring to upgrade Malik rather than Mara with Souray. I’d be fine with that too, my only thinking is Mara and Souray are more the same kind of player and maybe you upset too much team chemistry by letting Malik go after you just lost Nylander. Mara was a late season addtion and I don’t get the sense he is yet part of the fabric of the team.

    As for Shanahan he is one of my all time favorites and no doubt he is a great leader. But let’s face facts, on the ice he wasn’t getting it done in the 2nd half for 2 years straight. I said let him go even before the Gomer/Drury signings, his goals and leadership can be replaced. It seems mgmt has accelerated the objective of winning the cup and there is no margin for guys who can’t keep up at both ends of the ice.

  28. Did I miss something during my sleep ????

    Can I go on sleeping or is something going on now ????

    I have slept for fifteen hours but that is not enough for me …:)

  29. Personally, I think if we “upgrade” the D it will be by trading both Malik and Mara and getting back one player who costs about the same as Malik, like Derek Morris, whilke also opening up enough cap space to give Hank his long-term $5 million, Shanny and Avery $2 each, sign Hossa and still have some room. If they made those deals and instead of a guy with a $2.5 million price tag signed Souray they’d still have to dump Cullen or Prucha or even Straka to make room, unless the plan is to get Hank through arbitration at $2.5 this year and sign him for more next. Which sounds great on paper, but personally, while you’ve got a franchise goaltender who has no reason to be interested in anywhere else willing to sign up at 5 years/5 million per or even 7 years at that price, I think you find a way to do that because it locks up Drury, Gomez and Lundqvist for 5-7 years.

  30. Peter why pay Hank long term at 5m when you could get a one year arbitration award at under 3m and wait and see another year how he does and how Montoya develops?

  31. Call Me Nutty on

    Could this work?

    Trade Cullen and Mara. Sign Souray, Hossa, Avery and Shanahan. Lungqvist long-term. Backup with Montoya, trade him if need to replace someone and get a veteran backup.

    Three top lines and a grinder line. Go about 18, 18, 18, 6 on the minutes if you can stay out of the penalty box. Don’t have to count on anyone 20 plus minutes all the time.

    Hossa-Straka-Jagr (Euro line)
    Prucha-Gomez-Callahan (speed)
    Shanahan-Drury-Avery (North American line)
    Hollweg-Betts-Orr (checking line)
    Malik-Rosival
    Souray-Staal
    Tyutin-Girardi

    Still have Pock, Dawes, Dubinsky when they’re needed/ready.

    OK, call me nutty

  32. Sawit onCh9 on

    Shanahan should consider not coming back, he`s made millions, he`s got a personality that will allow him to make plenty doing personal appearances, maybe a Spokesperson for that Warrior stick he`s been using. At 38yrs old, after that type of injury, he should consider coaching his son`s hockey team.
    Time to go home Shanny.

  33. ORR Kicks Yin Yang on

    Yeah..Maybe Shanny wasnt getting it done when he came back from that concussion…

    But unless you all forgot…He got it done in the playoffs…Scoring huge goals for us…2 game winners…

    I cant be convinced that Shanny isnt still worth it…I believe he is..and he’s what this team needs…Along with the “oldies” like Jagr and Straka etc.

    The youth could be damn good but some seem to forget our 4 top players were over 30….

  34. Jagr is 34 and starka too that isnt old but 39 is and that is Shannys age rite now and he is only good for one more year and is only goin to plsay one more year jagr asnd straka have at least 3 maybe 4 and jagr controls a game and shanny is just a leader and sniper. Keep hossa avery and lok up lundqvust long term. Get rid of malik or mara…..maliks older but mara who cares dump them both and get one player for them to free up cap space.

  35. enough of this Souray nonsense. we can not afford him and people are talking like he’s Niedermeyer or Pronger. The King will make more than $ 3 mm. Signing a bum like Souray will cost Cullen and a good dman this yr and Rozy or Tyutin next yr at a minimum. How many guys do you want at 5 yrs $ 5 mm plus. The cap will almost undoubtably go down next yr. It makes absolutely no sense.

  36. Robby Bonfire- That goal Shanny scored against Atlanta in round one of the playoffs with 4 minutes left in the game in a 1-1 game wasnt “clutch” or how about the 2 goals he scored against the devils to tie and gives the lead or the sniper shot he scored against Pittsburgh to tie the game. I guess you have a bad definition of “clutch”

  37. Robby Bonfire on

    Exceptions do not nullify the rule, or in this case, my findings over more than half a season. And tell me something, for what these guys get paid, why SHOULDN’T they make important and timely contributions on a consistent basis? It’s not like I said he NEVER makes a significant contribution, just not as many as he should, and I stand on that statement.

    I am impressed with Shanahan’s personal and professional attributes, but it is time for the Rangers to move on. In fact, the club is becoming too talented to coddle yesterday’s heroes who won’t be here when we next win the Cup. Shanahan had his time, and had a HOF career. His time is gone. Face it, except so many here don’t want to.

  38. LI Joe agreed the long term cap charges are a concern but at this point with mgmt apparently going for it in the next 2 years that’s secondary. Besides, more salary can be shed next year with Malik and Straka. Look around the league how many 28 goal mean edged defensemen are there? The real bum is Mara- he is a (very) poor man’s version of Souray making 3m. How do you not try and upgrade him to Souray for 2.5m more…and you make up that 2.5m with a 3m award to Lundquist in arbitration rather than the long term deal. The more I think about upgrading Mara to Souray makes so much sense for this team- that’s why I have little faith Sather will be able to pull it off. Though if he does- finds a taker for Mara and gets Lundquist at 3m in order to make room for Souray at 5.5m I’ll hold off on saying anything bad about Sather for one full season.

  39. the Rangers could make a huge statement to the rest of the league, by tying up all of their loose ends.

  40. ORR Kicks Yin Yang on

    Gimme a break…..How is Malik better then Mara…I can think about 7 or 8 times….maybe even more….when Malik costed us a game by popping the puck in our net…or even his pathetic lazy give aways….

    How the hell do we even know Souray will mesh with out PP units…I dubt Souray would get 20 goals with our system…We all though Cullen would be good on the PP at the point but he wasnt…and we gave up a few short handed goals because of his lack of defensive skill shorthanded…

    Souray could be a huge mistake….I doubt were even in the hunt for the guy…dont listen to rumors you hear around the net…

    In my opinion….Leave the team as it is…Just dump Malikand bring up Pock or Strudwick.

  41. matteau – get off the Souray bandwagon. it hurts this year – next yr and long term. so you say we’re going for it this yr and next yr. well this yr he signs and say good bye to either Prucha or Cullen + 1 dman. next yr say good bye to either Rozy or Tyutin + a forward – and that’s just to accomodate this bum. Draft him for your fantasy team.

    Henrik’s salary during most of the Souray years will be $ 5 to $ 8 mm. On top of Gomez and Drury. Jagr’s salary (I think) will be fully allocated to Rangers starting next yr. Lots of others will be getting raises including young guys. Souray is far from being a Pronger or Niedermeyer. The sooner he signs with someone else the better we’ll be and the better my bp will be for not having to read the Souray bs.

  42. Robert – I just love coming here so I can read your comments and laugh at your stupidity. By your reasoning from one of your posts yesterday, you wouldn’t have Jagr on the team next year because he is hitting his career wall at 35 and he won’t be here in three years for our supposed cup run then. Why can’t you see that we’re gunning for a cup this season, then bringing up the kids.

    Since you are so high on baseball, what do you think about the Mets and Alou? They figured he would miss some games but were banking on the fact that he would be there when they make the playoffs. The Rangers are in good shape to make the playoffs next year, and if Shanahan is on the team and misses a few games, so be it; he’ll just be fresher for the cup run. At this point, I’d rather have Shanahan on the team, but could live without him. But it can’t help to have some extra coaching; look at Anaheim this season and most winning baseball teams. Before Nylander left, I wanted to see Straka gone because I think he is still injured.

    I would like to see some of these BS stats you come up with, so would you mind posting some here? They probably say that Malik is the next coming of Brian Leetch. Then you go saying that leadership is some sort of feminist crap. I guess the players could just coach themselves then and run around like chickens with their heads cut off. It’ll save Dolan a few bucks. Maybe you _should_ go watch some golf.

  43. Robby Bonfire on

    Mara and Strudwick – now there’s a pair on D for the ages! I would trade them both for a donut and a stale cup of coffee.

  44. Robby Bonfire on

    The Rangers, and fans like the above, can “Gun for the Cup this year” all they want. The REALITY is, if the team intelligently puts the talented young pieces into the Broadway puzzle, this season and next, in 2009 – 2010 this team will be in position to make a really big run for the Cup, and maybe get it done.

    Another REALITY is that no organization in any sport wins a championship while phasing in blue chip kids – see PITTSBURGH. (But watch out for Pittsburgh, starting this year, I do believe.)

    The potential nucleus including Staal, Sanguinetti, Sauer, Lundqvist, and all the potent young forwards we can add to a base of Callahan and company (and we are thin here, and do need more quality young forwards)
    needs to be phased in now, not two years from now when it is goodbye, Jagr.

    Best guess is that Jagr will not be part of a Stanley Cup winner here. The old guys are too old, and the young guys are too young, sorry to say. But dream big if you want, fantasy and self-delusion are more fun than reality, any day.

    As regards my clutch-goal points award system, I divide a player’s points accumulation by his minutes logged at even strength. The points are awarded on a Fibonacci sliding scale of 89-55-34-21-13-8-5, with 89 points being awarded for a tying or leading goal, 55 points for a goal giving a two-goal lead, 34 points for a goal giving a three-goal lead, etc. Reverse the process on the down side, with goals earning more points when trailing in close games, than in lopsided games.

    I don’t have it right in front of me, but I recall Shanahan was in the 15% range, Prucha and Hossa were over 70%, dividing their Fibonacci points accumulation by their even-strength minutes logged. Shanahan was the second-last bottom feeder on the team, in this respect, behind Hollweg, who has other responsibility on the ice, before scoring. Take it for what it’s worth, or scoff at it, if you like. It serves MY purpose, which is, I want to know who steps up at crunch time, and who takes a hike. The numbers don’t lie.

  45. Think of Souray like this- Equivalent to Marek Malik defensively with a MINUS 28 rating and a cannon shot from the blue line. Thats all he has. Is that worth 5 mill per season over 5-7 years for a 31 year old player? Not in my opinion

  46. This Ranger team is not really that old of a team. I really believe that having Shanny on the team will be a positive for us. It’s funny how people in here are so quick to leave the guy high and dry. The guy never had a guy playing with him all year that could set him up. Put Gomez or Drury in there and it is a different story. Many of the goals he scored last year he petty much did all on his own. I would put money on the fact that if he has a good center to feed him the puck all year it will be a different story. Half the reason the guy burnt out was because of his age and the fact that he had to do most of his scoring on his own. Maybe he is not not fastest guy on the team but we have other people for that. Drury or Gomez can skate in to the zone and set people up. And his leadership is HUGE and anyone on the team will tell you that. Now, I am not riding the guys jock or anything, but I am judging it how I see it. If we did’t get some of the points in the beginning of the year that we got directly because of Shanny, we don’t make the playoffs. It is that simple. Keeping him on the roster for one more year is a good thing. I want the youth just as much as the next guy, but having a good mix will only help you in the playoffs, the guy is a proven winner.

  47. Thanks LI Joe but I like my Souray bandwagon. The future wold be just fine with him. Recognizing lots of things will happen between now and then but just for sake of argument, in 2008-09 the line up could be:

    Hossa-Gomez-Jagr (13m)
    Dawes(or Cherapanov)-Drury-Prucha (9.5m)
    Avery-Dubinsky(or Anisimov)-Callahan (3.5m)
    Hollweg-Betts-Orr (2.5m)

    Souray-Staal (6m)
    Sangunietti(or Sauer)-Rosival (4.5m)
    Tyutin-Girardi (3m)

    Lundquist and Backup (6m)

    That’s 48m and thus room to add a vet at the deadline bc cap likely to be higher than current 50m.

  48. I’m sorry, but exactly how many Cups has Souray won? Oh, that’s right, 0. And how many has Shanny won? Yeah, sure. Their leadership is equal. On Mars.

  49. Leisure Suit Larry on

    Isn’t Drury supposed to be a great leader? So why bother with Shanahan.

    I really hope Shanahan is not coming back.

    we need to drop same dead weight and salaries

    trade Hossa for 4th rounder

    Trade Immonen, Betts and Pock for Lundqvist’s twin and a 4th rounder

    trade Cullen, Malik, Korpikoski and Dawes for Jovanovski and Hanzal

    buy out Kasparaitis

  50. imagination on

    Shanahan if resigned should not have to be out on the PK nearly as much with Drury & Gomez available. I’m sure that’s not Fabian’s scale either, but it works for me!

  51. I swear, I don’t for the life of me understand some of you. First off, Souray sucks, period. Yes, he has a great shot. Yes, he would help out the PP. And the minute he looks like Bruce Driver on defense, everyone will be calling for his head. And how was Shanahan bad last year? Why is it we don’t need him? Can someone please explain this to me. I am dying to know what I am missing.

  52. Leisure Suit Larry on

    Drury-Straka-Jagr
    Prucha-Gomez-Callahan/Shanahan
    Avery-Lundqvist-Bourret/Shanahan
    Byers/Hollweg-Dubinsky-Moore

    Jovanovski-Staal
    Tyutin-Girardi
    Baranka-Rozsival

  53. NJ Mark you make some fair points but the counter and I think better arguments are made in my posts and some others today. If you need more clarification after reading them I’ll be happy to try again.

  54. I’m not quite sure why your scale is based on Fibonacci numbers, but that’s just me, and probably everybody else. It makes sense about the clutch thing, but how exactly was Hossa consistant last year? He was only consistant in the second half of the season, which, no coincidence, coincides with your study. Honestly though, you are looking into this too much. I’m not quite sure how your system ranks goals scored when the team is losing, so basically I’m not gonna trust it until there’s some better proof behind it.

  55. Unfortunately I hear that Malik will be a ranger next year most likely, but Mara wont because he actually makes more and has one year remaining. He will probably be traded for a pick. There is also a possibility that both Malik and Mara are traded for one d-man that makes 2M to free up cap space. This is if they can find that defense man that has the right salary and is worth it.

  56. NJ MArk – you’re not missing anything you’re right on.

    Matteau – just about ervery combo is understatedre how much it will cost them. I’m not sure if we still get JJ for 1/2 price next yr (if not that is really out of line). Love your name – but totally against the Souray bit. Hopefully he will sign with someone else tomorrow. If he signs with us we’re screwed big time.

  57. Robby Bonfire on

    Good question re why apply Fibonacci values here, or anywhere else? The answer is that I get validation, going on three years now, (if I can stray a bit here, for the sake of example), from my applying Fib values to the top five finishing drivers in Formula-1 races. By taking a driver’s individual points accumulation and dividing it by the total points in the pool, I get a percentage, which I then convert to its odds equivalent. Nine races into the 2007 season, the odds I get on the top four drivers are: Hamilton 2.8-1; Alonso 3.9-1, Raikkonen 4.2-1, and Massa 4.8-1. These odds quite accurately reflect the winning chances of these drivers, going into any given race. And since the odds being offered by the books, both Las Vegas and offshore, from race to race, short-change the player in ALL cases, above, I save money by not taking any underlay wagering propositons.

    As a sports fan and serious professional bettor on the horses, baseball, and football, I find applying Fib values really separates the wheat from the chaff, for handicapping purposes.

    Here is the complete chart as regards hockey (even-strength) goal scoring values. (The + or – number indicates where the team is FOLLOWING the goal being evaluated on this points basis.)

    =============================================

    + 7 goals = 5 Fib points

    + 6 = 8 points

    + 5 = 13 points

    + 4 = 21 points

    + 3 = 34 points

    + 2 = 55 points

    + 1 = 89 points

    TIE = 89 points

    -1 = 55 points

    -2 = 34 points

    -3 = 21 points

    -4 = 13 points

    -5 = 8 points

    -6 = 5 points

    -7 = 3 points

    =============================================

    So that Shanahan scoring an even-strength goal cutting the Rangers deficit from 5-2 to 5-3 earns 34 points. And Hossa, scoring an even-strength tie-breaking goal at any point in a game, earns 89 points. Again, I divide the player points earned by his even-strength minutes and tabulate forward, game-by-game. Works for me. I always know WHY I take a position on a player and understand that judging by visual impressions, exclusively, can be misleading, at best.

  58. I find the use of fibonacci sequnces here interesting and actually think you’ve come up with something very creative and probably more useful than plus/minus. Why only use even stregth minutes, though? If Shanny scores a PP goal when it’s tied, shouldn’t that count as a clutch goal?

  59. I know it is not a credible website but did anyone else see how wikipedia said Henrik signed today for a 9 years 56.7 million dollar contract… that sounds to high to me but can it be true

  60. Sam, Blueshirt Bulletin, TSN, etc. would have reported it if it was true. I doubt it…

  61. Wikipedia:
    Why let the facts spoil a good encyclopedia?

    On wikipedia the Fibonacci series is 2-4-6-8…

  62. It’s an interesting system, but probably needs to be tweaked to account for time in the game. Right now, the first goal of the game gets the same value as the game-winning goal that could come in overtime. Thanks for the explaination

  63. Here’s something interesting I was talking about earlier with my friend:

    Let’s suppose Lundqvist gets taken to arbitration and they award him $3 million or whatever. That means the Rangers can’t officially sign him to an extension until January 1, 2008, correct?

    Well, what if the Rangers and Hank have already agreed in principle to a new long-term deal, knowing that they can’t officially announce anything until next year because of the cap restrictions? If that’s the case, then both sides may have agreed not to let anything leak out to the media until it can be officially announced.

  64. imagination on

    robby try your scale on Shanahan’s career. And if you come up with the same answer, that’ll prove how your system is flawed. Try it with Jagr, Gretsky, etc. You keep Hossa over Shanahan, not me. For you to take Shanahan’s contribution to the NYR last season and discount it at the 89 cents store scale is proof enough.

  65. Here are your lines, Matteau:

    Hossa-Gomez-Jagr (13m)
    Dawes(or Cherapanov)-Drury-Prucha (9.5m)
    Avery-Dubinsky(or Anisimov)-Callahan (3.5m)
    Hollweg-Betts-Orr (2.5m)

    Souray-Staal (6m)
    Sangunietti(or Sauer)-Rosival (4.5m)
    Tyutin-Girardi (3m)

    Do you really think Dawes is just going to get inserted on the 2nd line and make up for the loss of Shanny by netting 30+? I don’t. Forget Cherepanov, he’s committed to playing in Russia this year, AND he’s probably not ready. And what’s to say Dubinsky or Anisimov is ready? On defense, same thing for Sauer, and to a certain extent, even Staal. You are talking about a team that thinks they can contend for the Cup, and you want to insert 4-7 rookies into the lineup? I don’t think they signed Gomez and Drury with the hopes of making this a re-building year. And forget Sanguinetti, he has a year of juniors left too. And these lines are all based on someone taking Malik and Mara off our hands. One is slightly possible, not both.

    Believe me, I am not by any means opposed to letting our kids play. But only IF they are ready. Of the names you listed above, 2 kids (Staal and Sauer) have only played juniors, 2 have only 1 year AHL experience (Dubinsky and Dawes) and might not be ready yet, and 2 who will definitely not be on the team this year (Sanguinetti and Cherepanov). Like it or not, this is most likely your opening night roster:

    Straka-Gomez-Jagr
    Avery-Drury-Shanahan
    Prucha-Cullen-Callahan
    Hossa-Betts-Hollweg/Orr

    Defense: Rozy, Tyutin, Mara, Malik, Girardi, and either Staal or Pock.

  66. Robby Bonfire on

    Yes, I thought of using Fibonacci for developing a Power Play grade for players, also, and would very much like to. Trouble is, those damnable, laughable 5 on 3 situations. They make a joke of PP numbers. So I think I will just pass, there, with regret.

    Very interesting, this challenge of “time of game” evaluation. Open to suggestion, here. Of course, frequently, the game’s first goal is also the game winning goal, in so far as giving a team a permanent lead, and is critically important, as a result.

    Hockey and baseball do it differently. In baseball, if you lead all the way and win, 6-5, the FIRST score is the game winning RBI. In hockey, if you lead all the way and win 6-5, the SIXTH goal counts as the game winning goal. Matter of opinion, here, but I prefer baseball’s method, by far, because you can lead 6-0 in hockey, win 6-5, and suddenly the goal that was scored when it was 5-0 to make it 6-0 gets all the credit. This is suspect accounting, to my mind.

  67. Robby Bonfire on

    Yes, another good point, Hossa stepped up in the second half of last season. I, too, prefer at least one full season statistical sampling to draw from.

    So we can agree his performance (and, obviously I hope he is here) in the first half of this coming season will be telling as to whether his second-half in 2007 represented his gaining maturity and confidence to go with his ability, or whether it was a fluke. Change is constant, so we will just have to wait and see. This next season is pivotal for his career. The fact that he was scoring timely, meaningful goals in the seceond-half of 2006-2007 is cause for optimism, but the jury is still out.

  68. One other thing I’d like to add about Souray:

    Last year, he had 26 goals and 38 assists for 64 points. Yes, excellent numbers. But before last year, he never had more than 39 points in a season, and no more than 15 goals. Could it just possibly be that this guy was playing for a contract last year? Now, to say Souray is better than Shanahan because of last season is INSANE!! No way can you EVER bank on a defenseman to replace a top winger’s goal scoring production. Period.

    If Sather can find a way to sign Lundqvist, Shanahan, Avery, and Hossa, and trade Malik, and if Souray is willing to accept a decent offer to play here, then I’d be ok with it. Otherwise, no way. And I am 99.9% sure there is no way all of those things will occur.

  69. I wish people would stfu about Souray. He’s not the defense oriented defensemam the Rangers need. He’s nothing, especially after the salary he wants. There is a reason why he is still unsigned.

  70. NJ Mark – matteau’s lines were what he was projecting for next yr not this yr. this was in response to questions re the effect Souray would have on our team going forward. I still vehemently disagree with the Souray nonsense but to be fair I pointed that out. the more I think about it the more the idea disgusts me. restricted free agents are now targets of teams and his salary would kill us there even resigning a guy like Staal when he becomes restricted.

  71. LI Joe thanks for clarifying my point that we can handle Souray for a 3-4 year deal and it not affect our future. I know you disagree about the latter and there is definitely an issue with flexibility to protect our own But if the team is going for it during Jagr’s tenure and it believes in its prospects and works them in properly then I think it is necessary to acquire Souray as he by himself fills the need for a physical presence on the backline and a power play threat from the point.

    Lauren, leaving salary considerations aside for a moment who would you rather have Mara or Souray?

  72. Bonfire – I think you’re wrong about how baseball awards the game-winning RBI; I believe it is the same as in hockey, but it’s not really an official stat in baseball is it? The one thing that they do have different is how wins and losses are awarded to goalies an pitchers. If a pitcher leaves with his team losing 3-2, and the final score is 8-7 the same way without the losing team ever tying, the same pitcher loses. If that happened in hockey, the new goalie that came in would lose, which doesn’t seem right, especially if he gives up one goal. In hockey, I like the way the game-winning goal is awarded because without that goal, the game would be tied if it is a one-goal game. So the last goal should still count as the game-winner no matter when it was scored. But your system seems to ignore that fact well, because it’s not as important if the goal is scored at 6-0 than it would be at 6-5. I’m just saying use time of game to distinguish between a 1-0 goal in the first five minutes and one in the last five minutes.

  73. Lauren — The reason he’s not signed is because Slats asked him to wait until he could dump some cap and open up a spot on the Rangers…

  74. In the comments section of his latest blog, Zipay reports ‘rumblings’ of a Mike Peca-for-Sean Avery deal. I guess someone would have to sign Peca first, as he is a UFA? Sam, hear anything on this?

  75. Adam Z — I think that’s just some Islanders fan posting a BS rumor and using Zipay’s name. The Rangers have enough centers and getting rid of Avery for a broken down Peca is senseless.

    If Zipay’s going to report something like that, my guess is he’d make a new blog post about it and not put it in the comments.

  76. Adam – I bet that is someone impersonating Zipay. If it was him it would be in his blog not the comments to the blog.

  77. Robby Bonfire on

    Baseball compiled the GWRBI stat “offically” for just one year, back in the 80’s or early 90’s, then abandoned it. But the way I stated it, the RBI giving a team a permanent lead, it how they compiled it.

    I certainly like downgrading, on a points award basis, any goal which gives a team, say, a 6-0 lead, by comparison with all goals which went before, in descending order of importance. The first goal, on the way to a team scoring the first six goals in a game, is by far the most important – in fact it opened the floodgates. Had the first goal gone the other way, there is your momentum shift, and at the very least you have a closer contest, maybe even a different result.

  78. There’s no way the Rangers do Peca-for-Avery in any incarnation the deal might take(namely, that they don’t resign Avery and do sign Peca). Ludicrous ramblings, just like the Forsburg-is-a-Ranger bunk that was posted here not to long ago. Save that garbage for Eklund.

    Guys, Souray ain’t comming here. Mark my words. IMO, It makes no sense. This whole debacale is a spin-off of rumors that were spurred when Jagr made his comment about defense; that was when the Souray rumor started. I can see him in NJ, but not here. Sather is done spending for the season.

    CULLEN – He’ll be on the openning day roster. Again, mark my words. Not that I put a hell of a lot of faith in Blueshirt Bulletin, Mitch Beck said the organization is very high on him. Frankly, I think he’s replaceable, but that’s me.

    And whoever had Straka as first-line forward, you don’t think they spent $7 million per for a third-line center…

    Lines:
    JJ-Gomez-Straka
    Shanahan-Drury-Prucha
    Avery-Cullen-Hossa/Callahan
    Hollweg-Betts-Callahan/Dawes

    Malik-Roszival
    Tyutin-Mara
    Girardi-Staal

  79. Robby Bonfire on

    T_Bird is joking friends, as regards his “personal” Fibonacci values. In fact, they are: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144-233-377-610-987, etc., to infinity.

    The sum of any two consecutive numbers will always equal the next number in the sequence, so that 21 + 34 = 55, etc. Fibonacci numbers are named after the Italian mathetician who, centuries ago, researched this numerical pattern found in many examples in nature, such as the ratio of the growth pattern of seashells. The rate of increase from one number to the next is always a ratio of 1.618 – 1. Back To School for Rodney and T_Bird.

  80. Leisure Suit Larry on

    Maloney signs Mike York for 1 mil, could be a steal, but makes it less likely that they will trade for Cullen or Dawes.

  81. Hossa is a better forward than Shanny? The Fibonacci numbers say so?

    BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

    Please stop. You’re going to make me pee in my pants.

  82. Not sure who is saying Hossa is better than Shanny but I tell you what at this point in their careers and given the team needs, cap, etc, if I had to choose between Hossa at 800k and Shanny at 3m I take Hossa.

  83. I have a sneaking suspicion that Avery & Shanny will be gone soon. And Souray will be a Ranger.

    Think about it: Avery is gonna get paid by someone. Shanny is great, but do we really need him at this point? Henke is gonna soak up a lot of cash. And when you try to sort out the lines, there is always an extra forward, and a mediocre defense.

    Hossa Gomez Jagr
    Straka Drury Callahan
    Prucha Cullen Bourett
    Orr Betts Hollweg

    Rozy Malik
    Souray Tyutin
    Mara Girardi
    Stall at some point if he is ready.

    Henke.

    And there is all your money too.

  84. Actually, that’s more than all our money. If Hank is going to be paid $5-6 million on a long term deal, and Souray’s going to get the same, that actually precludes us from signing Hossa or Shanny or Avery and puts us over the cap. If the Rangers are going to sign Souray, then they will unquestionably be trading Malik and Mara in order to do so. Unless they’re going to pay Hank $3 million at arbitration, pay Shanny about $1.5 plus incentives, and then they only have to get rid of Mara.

    One of those guys is headed out of town, believe me. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yotes just signed Mike York to deal him to us in some kind of deal that sends Cullen and his $3 million salary the other way, or somewhere else anyway.

  85. Trade Cullen and Mara for York and Souray at about same combined salary hit? Where do we sign

  86. Robby Bonfire on

    I am going to exaggerate a point by saying I am betting HOSSA will have a more productive season in 2007-2008, than SHANAHAN, just going by goals and points totals. At this stage Shanahan is damaged goods, and the Father Time is about ready to cash in the old guy’s chips. So yes, at this stage I AM saying Hossa is better than Shanahan.

  87. Robby Bonfire on

    By the way, real men PISS, while girls, women, females, whatever they want to be called – this week – PEE. Real men don’t “pee,” stud.

  88. not saying you are supporting bringing back york, but why would we want him back? as much as i would like to get rid of cullen, who we signed to an absurdly long contract and for way too much money, dubinksy could do more than york. im torn on shanny as i think he could be more effective with a playmaking center but id rather see prucha play with gomez or drury if it was a choice between prucha and shanny. that being said if u can put avery on the third line (where his offensive skills belong) then having shanny for one more year (and no penalty killing) wouldn’t be terrible. He is undoubtedly a great leader, but Prucha could have most likely had the same impact last year if he was given the full power play time (where most of Shannys goals were scored) that shanny received. also I think jagr would be better fit with drury as gomez is a run and gun guy and jagr seems to be lacking the speed of his youth

  89. pete – so if you don’t like the length and $ of Cullen’s contract you’ll really like Souray’s. Figure this time next yr you’ll be complaining about 4 or 5 yrs at at least $ 5 mm / per if Sather is foolish enough to sign him.

  90. ill be complaining about sourays right away as he just isnt that great a defenseman, slap shot be damned

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